Rockets vs. Warriors Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Playoffs Game 6

The Warriors are favored to end this first-round matchup on Friday night.

Golden State Warriors forward Jimmy Butler III is a solid prop target in Game 6. / Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images

Friday is take No. 2 for the Golden State Warriors as they try to close out the Houston Rockets in their first-round series after taking a 3-1 series lead. 

Houston bounced back in a big way in Game 5, getting up early against Golden State to coast to a win, but the Warriors made a smart decision and rested both Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler in the second half, as neither star played over 26 minutes in the matchup.

Does that benefit Golden State at home in Game 6?

The Warriors are 2-0 at Chase Center in this series, but they’ve had to play some hard-fought battles in every one of their wins in the first round. Meanwhile, Houston has two big wins at home where it overwhelmed Golden State on the defensive end.

In NBA history, only 13 teams have come back from a 3-1 series deficit to eventually win the series. Houston has the benefit of a potential Game 7 at home if it can extend the series on Friday night.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 6 of this Western Conference showdown. 

Rockets vs. Warriors Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Rockets +5 (-108)
• Warriors -5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Rockets: +180
• Warriors: -218

Total

• 205 (Over -110/Under -110)

Rockets vs. Warriors How to Watch

• Date: Friday, May 2
• Time: 9:00 p.m. EST 
• Venue: Chase Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: Warriors lead 3-2

Rockets vs. Warriors Injury Reports

Rockets Injury Report

• Jock Landale – out
• Jae’Sean Tate – out

Warriors Injury Report

• Steph Curry – available
• Gary Payton II – available

Rockets vs. Warriors Best NBA Prop Bets

Houston Rockets Best NBA Prop Bet

• Alperen Sengun OVER 14.5 Rebounds and Assists (-135)

Alperen Sengun has done it all for Houston on the offensive end of the floor in this series, averaging 20.8 points, 11.2 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game. 

I’m eyeing this combined rebounds and assists prop for Sengun since he has cleared it in four of the five games in this series (all except Game 1) by putting up 23, 15, 15 and 18 rebounds and assists over his last four games.

The Rockets are going to play Sengun heavy minutes, and even though he’s grabbed just 19 boards over his last two games, he’s made up for it by registering 14 assists. Plus, Houston has hammered Golden State on the glass all series, grabbing 53.3 percent of the available rebounds. 

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jimmy Butler OVER 22.5 Points (-110)

Playoff Jimmy in a close out game?

Butler was held to just eight points in Game 5 – although he played less than 26 minutes in a loss – but he’s scored 25 or more points in the two other games that he’s completed in this series.

The Warriors forward is dealing with a pelvic contusion, but he’s shooting 46.5 percent from the field in this series and has gotten to the line 25 times in less than four full games. He’s going to get plenty of touches in this matchup, and in Butler's last game back where he played his usual role (Game 3), he dropped 27 points and went to the line 12 times.

He’s a solid bounce-back candidate tonight. 

Rockets vs. Warriors Prediction and Pick

The last two games in this series have gone well over this number when it comes to the total, but overall seven of the 10 meetings between the Rockets and Warriors this season (five regular season and five playoff) have fallen short of 205 combined points.

Houston has found success in this series when it’s able to turn its defense into offense, as Golden State turned the ball over a bunch in Game 5 to let the Rockets get off to a fast start.

If the Warriors can limit that, Houston has really struggled shooting the ball overall in the first round. 

During the regular season, the Rockets were a top-five team in the league in defensive rating while Golden State closed the regular season – after the Jimmy Butler trade – with the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA.

So, we could still see another defensive slog in Game 6.

I expect these teams to come back to earth on offense after just clearing this total in Game 4 and soaring past it in Game 5.

Pick: UNDER 205 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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