Rockies vs. Pirates Prediction, Odds: Pirates Are Easy Bet With Paul Skenes on the Mound

A lopsided matchup – at least in the betting odds – is set for Tuesday night, as the Pittsburgh Pirates (22-19) host the Colorado Rockies (16-25).

Pittsburgh has ace Paul Skenes on the mound, and he’s completely turned his season around after a rough Opening Day against the New York Mets. Skenes now ranks in the 96th percentile in expected ERA and the 94th percentile in expected batting average against, leading the Pirates to a 5-3 record in his eight starts.

The Rockies have veteran Michael Lorenzen (6.92 ERA) set to take on Skenes, and he’s struggled in nine appearances this season, ranking in the 11th percentile in expected ERA and second percentile in expected batting average against.

Colorado is just 2-8 in its last 10 games, falling to last in the NL West in the process.

Can the Pirates, who are -358 favorites on Tuesday, pick up a win at home?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this National League showdown on May 12.

Rockies vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Rockies +1.5 (+123)
Pirates -1.5 (-149)

Moneyline

Rockies: +279
Pirates: -358

Total

7.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

Rockies vs. Pirates Probable Pitchers

Colorado: Michael Lorenzen (2-4, 6.92 ERA)
Pittsburgh: Paul Skenes (5-2, 2.36 ERA)

Rockies vs. Pirates How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 12
Time: 6:40 p.m. EST
Venue: PNC Park
How to Watch (TV): Rockies.TV/MLB.TV
Rockies record: 16-25
Pirates record: 22-19

Rockies vs. Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Pirates Best MLB Prop Bet

Brandon Lowe to Hit a Home Run (+425)

Earlier today, I shared in SI Betting’s best home run props – Daily Dinger – why Lowe is a great pick:

Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman Brandon Lowe has homered 10 times in the 2026 season, and I’m buying him on Tuesday against the Colorado Rockies and righty Michael Lorenzen.

Lowe is hitting .308 with three home runs over the last two weeks, and he’s been even better over the last seven days, hitting .350 with two homers and an OPS of 1.191. On top of that, Lowe has crushed right-handed pitching in 2026.

He’s hitting .299 with eight of his 10 home runs, and a 1.074 OPS, against righties, making him a great target against the struggling Lorenzen.

The Rockies starter has a 6.92 ERA in the 2026 campaign and has given up seven home runs in nine appearances. On top of that, Lowe has found some success against Lorenzen in his career, going 2-for-8 with a double and a homer, posting a 1.083 OPS.

At +425, Lowe is worth a bet to stay hot on Tuesday.

Rockies vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

It’s hard to find a more lopsided pitching matchup than this one.

Lorenzen has an actual ERA of 6.92 and an expected ERA of 5.81 this season while opponents have an expected BAA of .316 against the veteran righty. That sets up well for the Pittsburgh offense, which is sixth in the league in OPS, fifth in runs scored and eighth in batting average in 2026.

Colorado’s offense has also been impressive, ranking ninth, 17th and sixth in those categories, but Skenes has been lights out since a rough start to the season against New York.

He’s allowed one or fewer runs in six of his last seven starts, tossing eight innings of two-hit ball in a win over Arizona his last time out. The Pirates have won five of Skenes’ outings this season with four of those wins coming by five or more runs.

So, there’s a good chance that the Pirates – who are 22-19 on the run line in 2026 – are able to cover the run line in this matchup.

Skenes has an expected ERA of 1.96 this season, and he’s allowed just 23 hits in 42.0 innings of work. The Pirates are an easy team to bet when he’s on the mound, especially with their offense off to a fast start in 2026.

Pick: Pirates -1.5 (-149 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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