Rounding the Bases: MLB Straight Up Picks for Every Game Today (Astros Stay Hot vs. Struggling Orioles)

The weekend of Major League Baseball has plenty of playoff implications littered across the sport, but no bigger series will outshine the one in Baltimore between the Astros and Orioles.

The Astros have erased a slow start to the year to emerge as the runaway AL West favorite and possibly the most in-form team in the American League ahead of the postseason. Can the team build on its Thursday night win against the Orioles and now has arguably its best pitcher on the mound in Hunter Brown.

Can the Astros stay hot? Here's a look at that game and the entire big league slate.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Reds vs. Pirates Prediction and Pick

Pick: Reds (+100)

In a game between two middling teams, I’ll take the small underdog.

Pirates’ starter Bailey Flater has had suspect peripherals all season, 12th percentile in strikeout rate and 10th percentile in xBA. With that in mind, Falter has consistently had regression in store for him, posting a 4.93 xERA against his 4.03 ERA.

I’ll side with the Reds as a way to fade Falter.

Astros vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Pick: Astros (-115)

Baltimore continues its suspect play since the All-Star break, so I’ll continue to fade the home team against a surging Astros club who has arguably its best pitcher on the mound.

Hunter Brown has shaken off a slow start to the season to play to expectation, posting a 2.25 ERA since the All-Star break with elite command. The price is still cheap to bet on one of the best players in the big leagues over the last two months or so.

Rockies vs. Yankees Prediction and Pick

Pick: Rockies (+230)

The Rockies lack the talent top to bottom that the Yankees have, but New York has consistently struggled against left handed pitching all season, making the home team not worth its price tag against Colorado.

New York is hitting .233 against southpaws this season, 24th in the bigs, and has a struggling Carlos Rodon set to start for the team (4.34 ERA).

I’ll take a flier on the big underdog.

Angels vs. Blue Jays Prediction and Pick

Pick: Blue Jays (-205)

Toronto has the more consistent pitching threat in Chris Bassitt on the mound that can navigate a hapless Angels lineup that is bottom five in batting average in the month of August, part of the teams 2-8 skid.

At home, I’ll back the Blue Jays, who are hitting at a league average clip since the start of the month.

Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: Diamondbacks (+110)

Neither team is starting a top-end rotation piece with the D-Backs set to start Ryne Nelson and the Sox countering with Brayan Bello, but this has been a spot to back Arizona all season. With a plus money price tag, Arizona is 31-32 on the year, one of the best marks in the big leagues.

Two explosive offenses meet in Boston on Friday night, and I’ll grab the underdog Diamondbacks to pull the minor upset.

Both teams are top five in batting average since the start of August, but Arizona has a significant power edge, tops in OPS.

Cubs vs. Marlins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Marlins (+105)

I can’t trust the Cubs as favorites with Kyle Hendricks on the mound, even against the lowly Marlins.

Hendricks has an ERA of 6.35 with a seventh-percentile strikeout rate. While his changeup generates soft contact, the ball is put in play way too often for base runners not to stack up.

Rangers vs. Guardians Prediction and Pick

Pick: Guardians (-135)

Cleveland has been the epitome of consistency for much of the season. The leaders of the AL Central, the Guardians are 38-20 at home, 49-25 as a favorite, and have hit as an above average offense all season in terms of OPS and rank top 10 in pitching staff ERA.

Meanwhile, the defending World Series champs, the Texas Rangers have struggled all year. Injuries are one thing, but the team has been underwhelming in its quest for a repeat, 10 games under .500. Despite Nathan Eovaldi being set to start, the team is 18-35 as an underdog this season.

I’ll take the discounted Guardians.

Nationals vs. Braves Prediction and Pick

Pick: Braves (-290)

Chris Sale is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young, and he should give the Braves plenty of margin for error on offense.

The Nationals are a below-average hitting offense against lefties, 20th in batting average, and have very little power, 29th in home runs hit.

Washington will struggle to get much traction on the base paths against Sale’s punch-out pitch while the Braves should have a better chance at hitting fellow lefty, Nats starter MacKenzie Gore, as the team is sixth in OPS.

Phillies vs. Royals Prediction and Pick

Pick: Royals (-135)

The Royals have stark home and road splits this season, fourth in OPS at Kauffman Stadium this season and 40-26 overall.

Of course, the Phillies have an elite roster that is at the top of the big league standings, but I’m going to side with Kansas City in front of its crowd to navigate a win with the Phillies slated to start the struggling Taijuan Walker.

Tigers vs. White Sox Prediction and Pick

Pick: White Sox (+135)

The Tigers are in a run of good form, winners of seven of the last 10 games, but I can’t lay this price with the team on the road, so I’ll plug my nose and take the lowly White Sox.

Detroit is only 22-23 as a favorite this season, and despite issues with the White Sox all over, this is a play on the number.

Cardinals vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Pick: Twins (-140)

Twins prospect David Festa has struggled a bit since being called up, posting a 4.96 ERA but he has decent underlying metrics, including a 27% strikeout rate and an xERA of 4.25.

I’ll give him and the Twins the edge at home as a small favorite against an underwhelming Cardinals team. Minnesota has thrived in the role as favorite all season, going 53-31 this season.

Mets vs. Padres Prediction and Pick

Pick: Padres (-140)

Joe Musgrove has looked back to his fine form after an injury riddled start to 2024. He has pitched four-and-a-third innings in his first two starts back, allowing a combined five hits with only one earned run.

The Mets bring pop to the lineup, but San Diego has the pitching edge against Paul Blackburn, so I’ll take the small favorite.

Brewers vs. Athletics Prediction and Pick

Pick: Athletics (+110)

I can’t trust Brewers starter Aaron Civale, a pitcher who has below average marks in key metrics like strikeout rate, hard-hit percentage, and ground ball rate, against a budding offense in the Athletics who can rake at home.

Further, JP Sears has been trending upwards since the All-Star break, posting a 3.12 ERA in six starts.

Rays vs. Dodgers Prediction and Pick

Pick: Dodgers (-200)

The Dodgers should be able to offset any concerns about pitching with Bobby Miller as the offense should rake against Tyler Alexander and the Rays bullpen.

Alexander may operate as an opener in this game, but he can get knocked around early with his inability to get movement on his pitches and limit barrels (fifth percentile). LA is tied for second in OPS against left-handed pitching, so a hot start is likely, and I believe this game can skew in favor of the NL West leaders pretty quickly.

Giants vs. Mariners Prediction and Pick

Pick: Mariners (-150)

After firing manager Scott Servais on Thursday, I’ll back the Mariners to get a bit of a bounce with a favorable pitching matchup.

Luis Castillo has been rock solid on the bump all season for the Mariners, and the offense should get a boost against Hayden Birdsong of the Giants, the team’s struggling rookie. He has a 6.14 ERA in five starts since the All-Star break as he has been crushed by hard contact (sixth percentile) and lack of control (eighth percentile).

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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