San Diego State vs. Utah State Prediction, Odds for Mountain West Championship Final

There’s a potential bid stealer in the Mountain West Conference, as the San Diego State Aztecs are in the Mountain West Championship Final on Saturday against the Utah State Aggies.

Utah State has all but locked up a spot in the NCAA Tournament with an impressive 27-6 record, but the Aztecs have been hovering on the bubble during conference championship week. They've done some good work to rebound after back-to-back losses late in the regular season, beating UNLV, Colorado State and New Mexico in their last three games.

The Aztecs are one of the best defensive teams in the country, ranking 18th in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.

But, do they have enough to upset the Aggies?

Utah State is a small favorite in this game, but it did lose the last meeting to these teams by 17 points on the road. The Aggies had a five-point home win over San Diego State earlier in the regular season.

This game means a lot for both teams, but San Diego State would completely take any stress away from Selection Sunday with a win. Can the Aztecs pull off the upset?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for the Mountain West Conference title game.

San Diego State vs. Utah State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

San Diego State +1.5 (-110)
Utah State -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

San Diego State: +100
Utah State: -120

Total

147.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

San Diego State vs. Utah State How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 14
Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Thomas & Mack Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
San Diego State record: 22-10
Utah State record: 27-6

San Diego State vs. Utah State Key Player to Watch

MJ Collins Jr., Guard, Utah State

MJ Collins Jr. is the leading scorer for the Aggies this season, putting up 17.5 points, 2.4 rebounds and 1.6 assists per game while shooting 49.0 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from 3.

After a 20-point game against UNLV in the quarterfinals, he scored just 12 points in the semifinal win over Nevada.

In two meetings with San Diego State this season, Collins has shot just 9-for-27 from the field, finishing with 12 and 18 points. The Aggies will need much more from him offensively if they want to win on Saturday, especially since the team has lost two games in a row where he’s failed to reach 10 points.

Collins has scored at least 10 points in all but three of his games in the 2025-26 campaign.

San Diego State vs. Utah State Prediction and Pick

There’s a good chance the Aztecs are playing for their NCAA Tournament lives on Saturday, and I think their defense is good enough to potentially lead them to an upset.

Officially, I’m taking San Diego State to cover, as it may have figured out some things in the blowout win over the Aggies towards the end of the regular season.

San Diego State’s profile is pretty simple. The Aztecs force a ton of turnovers (16th in opponent turnover rate) and really protect the paint well (13th in opponent 2-point percentage). They force a ton of 3s (357th in opponent 3-point rate) and have actually held opponents to just 33.7 percent from beyond the arc.

Utah State usually thrives from 2-point range (11th in the country in 2-point percentage), so this is a strength-on-strength matchup. The Aggies did win the first meeting between these teams by five points, but I am a little concerned about their defense.

The Aztecs aren’t great at much on the offensive end, but they do rank 88th in free-throw rate this season. That should serve them well against an Aggies defense that is 271st in opponent free-throw rate this season.

Utah State had two blowout wins to open the Mountain West tourney, but I can’t look past one thing from the two meetings between these teams:

Utah State shot just 40 and 41 percent from the field and 30 and 23 percent from 3 in their two meetings, despite winning one of them. The Aztecs dominated the game where they shot over 50 percent from the field, and they only lost by five on the road in a game where they shot 40 percent from the field and 25 percent from 3.

San Diego State’s defense is going to keep it in a lot of games, and there’s a clear motivation factor for Brian Dutcher’s team as it attempts to get off of bubble watch ahead of Selection Sunday.

Pick: San Diego State +1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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