Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Injury Causes Major Shift in NBA MVP Odds

Reigning league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the favorite to win the award once again in the 2025-26 season, but his lead is dwindling.

The Thunder guard is now dealing with an abdominal strain and will miss at least the next week of action. He is set to be re-evaluated after the All-Star break, which means SGA will miss Wednesday's showdown with the San Antonio Spurs.

Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander sustained an abdominal strain and will be re-evaluated following the All-Star break.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) February 4, 2026

The injury has also caused a shift in Gilgeous-Alexander's NBA MVP odds, as he's fallen from -340 to -260 after his injury was announced. Nikola Jokic (now +400) and Luka Doncic (now +1100) have both seen their odds jump as a result.

Gilgeous-Alexander should still be able to reach the 65-game threshold since he's only missed two games this season, but his injury does give both Jokic and Doncic a chance to gain on him for this award.

Here's a look at the current MVP odds at FanDuel.

NBA MVP Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: -260
Nikola Jokic: +400
Luka Doncic: +1100
Cade Cunningham: +2500
Jaylen Brown: +6000
Anthony Edwards: +25000
Tyrese Maxey: +25000
Jalen Brunson: +30000
Donovan Mitchell: +40000
Kawhi Leonard: +100000
Kevin Durant: +100000

Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.8 points, 4.4 rebounds and 6.4 assists per game this season while shooting 55.4 percent from the field and 39.0 percent from beyond the arc. The Thunder are the No. 1 team in the NBA, and SGA leads the league in win shares and VORP (Value Over Replacement Player).

The star guards absence will give Jokic a chance to close the gap in this market after a 16-game absence crushed the Denver center's odds. Jokic can only miss one more game the rest of the regular season to eligible to win the MVP, but the star big man is averaging a triple-double for a Denver team that has a shot to finish with the No. 2 seed in the West (or even better).

OKC has five games before the All-Star break against San Antonio, Houston, the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix an Milwaukee. SGA's first chance to return would come on Feb. 20 at home against the Brooklyn Nets.

If he misses more time, there's a chance he could fall out of the top spot in this market if Jokic -- or Doncic -- has a strong month of February.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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