SI Super Bowl Betting Competition: Mac vs. Peter vs. Brian (Favorite Picks for Seahawks vs. Patriots)

Super Bowl LX is just a few days away, and the SI Betting team is introducing a new competition to add some more intrigue to the Seattle Seahawks-New England Patriots matchup.

This year, senior editor Iain MacMillan (our resident NFL betting insider), VP of Betting Brian Giuffra and associate managing editor Peter Dewey are going head-to-head in 10 markets for this game with their predictions for Super Bowl LX.

From the spread, to the coin toss to Jaxon Smith-Njigba's receiving yards prop, we're hitting all aspects of the game for Super Bowl LX with bragging rights on the line.

Sports Illustrated Super Bowl Betting Competition

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Bet 1: Spread (Seahawks -4.5/Patriots +4.5)

Mac – Seahawks -4.5

We can all agree the NFC was the much stronger conference this season, and now we have the best the NFC has to offer against a Patriots team that benefited from their opponents suffering from self-inflicted wounds and injuries en route to the Super Bowl.

Almost every metric you look at shows the Seahawks are the far superior team. They rank first in overall DVOA, first in net yards per play, and first in net EPA. The Patriots rank ninth, third, and second in those three metrics while playing one of the easiest schedules in NFL history. At the end of the day, they could only play the teams across from them, and they took care of business in those matchups, but it's necessary context when evaluating who is going to win the Super Bowl.

The true difference-maker in this game could be the Seahawks' special teams, which is the second-best unit in the NFL according to DVOA, while the Patriots' special teams come in at 20th.

Every way I look, I see the Seahawks coming out on top in this one.

Peter – Patriots +4.5

Super Bowl LX features the two best teams in the NFL against the spread this season, as the Seattle Seahawks are 14-5 against the number while New England is 13-6-1. With the spread for this game moving from Seattle -3.5 to Seattle -4.5, I am going to take the points with Drake Maye and the Patriots on Sunday night.

There are a few trends in the Patriots’ favor in this one, including the fact that favorites of more than three points are just 2-9 against the spread in the last 11 instances in the Super Bowl. New England has covered as a favorite in two of three games this postseason, and I think this line is giving a little too much love to the Seahawks.

Sam Darnold led the NFL in turnovers during the regular season, and I think that could be the difference in this game that allows New England to hang around. The Patriots benefited from short fields against Denver and Houston in their last two playoffs wins thanks to some bad quarterback giveaways.

Plus, this New England defense has been better than it’s getting credit for, allowing just 26 points all postseason while dominating against the run.

Brian – Seahawks -4.5

Like Iain, I think Seattle covers too, but rather than recap the same stats and pick, I’ll give you another one. The Seahawks averaged the most PPG in the first quarter (7.0) in the NFL this season. In their two playoff games, they’ve scored 17 and 10. The Patriots were third in the NFL in first quarter PPG (6.5), but in their three playoff games they’ve scored a total of seven points and were shut out in two of them. I bet the Seahawks -1.5 in the first quarter at +110 on FanDuel. I prefer the plus-money for a team that has started fast all year.

Bet 2: Total (45.5)

Mac - UNDER 45.5

Credit to the Patriots for finding ways to win their three playoff games to this point, but their offense averaged just 3.3 yards per play in that stretch, and now they have to take on the best defense in the NFL. Alternatively, the reason for the Patriots getting this far has been their own defense. They got healthy late in the season and have done a great job of stepping up in the postseason.

Offensively, both teams like to run the football, ranking inside the top five of the NFL in run play percentage. The more they run, the more the clock drains. The more the clock drains, the less time there is to score.

Two run-first offenses backed by strong defenses is a recipe for an UNDER.

Peter – UNDER 45.5

There have been some high-scoring Super Bowls in recent years, but I think the defenses will dominate on Sunday. Seattle finished the regular season No. 2 in EPA/Play defensively while the Patriots have given up just 26 points all postseason.

Plus, both of these quarterbacks have been turnover prone, which could spoil a scoring chance or two on Sunday. I’ll take the UNDER.

Brian – UNDER 45.5

This could be a bit of a snooze fest for those who prefer feasting on touchdowns. Not only are the Seahawks and Patriots sixth and fifth in rushing attempt percentage, respectively, neither is particularly effective at scoring TDs in the red zone, ranking 14th and 22nd. Their defenses, meanwhile, give up the second- and fifth-fewest TDs per game. Yawn!

Bet 3: Drake Maye Passing Yards (220.5)

Mac - UNDER 220.5

There's no denying Drake Maye has had an MVP-caliber season, but he's had to face elite defenses in the postseason, and things have not gone well. He hasn't had a completion percentage of 60% in each of his three playoff games, and he only surpassed 180+ passing yards once, and it came against the weakest of the defenses, the Chargers.

He threw for just 179 yards against the Texans and 86 yards against the Broncos. Now, he has to face a Seahawks defense that's fifth in opponent dropback EPA, fourth in opponent dropback success rate, and third in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.7).

Peter – UNDER 220.5

After a great regular season, Maye has struggled a bit in the playoffs, failing to reach the 200-yard mark in two of his three games while completing just 55.8 percent of his passes (down from 72.0 percent in the regular season).

The Seahawks were eighth in the NFL in EPA/Pass and 10th in passing yards allowed in the regular season, making this the fourth tough matchup for Maye in a row. He has not played better against high-quality defenses, and a shoulder injury last week is a bit of a concern for him entering Super Bowl LX.

Brian – UNDER 220.5

The Drake Maye propaganda has gone far enough. He took a massive step forward in year two, but the idea he was the MVP is a bit of a joke. The Patriots averaged the fifth-fewest passing attempts per game in the NFL this season (29.0). Those numbers have dropped recently too, with Maye attempting 21, 18, 29, 27 and 21 attempts in the last five games. His shoulder is hurting too. I just don’t see the volume being high enough.

Bet 4: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Receiving Yards (95.5)

Mac UNDER 95.5

While Jaxson Smith-Njigba is certainly going to contribute to some extent in this game, I'm shying away from him being the top offensive contributor. He's going to have a tough matchup in front of him in Christian Gonzalez, who I'm willing to bet is going to do an admiral job of at least slowing down the best receiver in football.

Peter – UNDER 95.5

JSN went for 153 yards last week, but he has a much tougher matchup against christian Gonzalez and the New England secondary in Super Bowl LX. Now, Smith-Njigba did finish with over 95.5 receiving yards in 11 games during the regular season, but I’d expect Mike Vrabel and the Pats to try and take him out of this game.

It’s worth noting that Gonzalez has 15 tackles, one pick and four pass break-ups so far in the playoffs. He’s going to be a tough player to go at all game long.

Brian – UNDER 95.5

I’m getting depressed just writing all these UNDER picks. I take solace in knowing all of them won’t be right, even though the stats tell me they are. The Patriots gave up the sixth-fewest receiving yards to opposing WRs in the NFL this season at 114.5 per game. In total, they gave up 185.3 receiving yards per game, which was eighth-best in the league. As great as JSN is, I don’t see him lighting up the Pats D to the tune of nearly 100 yards by himself.

Bet 5: Kenneth Walker III Rushing Yards (71.5)

Mac OVER 71.5

Kenneth Walker got 19 carries in each of the Seahawks’ two playoff games, and if the game script goes how I think it will, Seattle will spend a bulk of the second half trying to drain the clock and hold on to their lead. In doing so, they’ll lean on Walker in the run game. Let’s remember he has averaged an impressive 4.6 yards per carry this season.

Peter – UNDER 71.5

I know, I’m taking the UNDER everywhere, but the Patriots are allowing just 71 rushing yards per game in the playoffs and they gave up just 4.2 yards per carry during the regular season. This run defense has been reinvigorated with Milton Williams and Robert Spillane back, and Walker was held to just 62 yards on 19 carries in the NFC title game.

He has failed to clear 71.5 rushing yards in 13 of his 19 games this season, and I don’t think Zach Charbonnet’s injury is a reason to blindly bet the OVER for Walker in Super Bowl LX.

Brian - OVER 71.5

This is one of the most bet props in Vegas, and everyone is on the UNDER. I’ll zig when others zag. I believe the Seahawks will win by remaining true to who they are, and that is a rushing team. They average 29.8 rushing attempts per game, fifth in the NFL. With Zach Charbonnet out, expect Walker to get the majority of the rushing attempts for Seattle, as he has the last two weeks.

Bet 6: Stefon Diggs Receptions (4.5)

Mac - UNDER 4.5

The Seattle Seahawks have one of the best secondaries in the NFL, so the Patriots may need to find mismatches in the passing game, which could include targeting their running backs and tight ends. That may leave Diggs with not many targets throughout the game. He only averaged 5.0 receptions per game this season, most of which came against far inferior secondaries.

Peter – UNDER 4.5

This postseason, Diggs is playing just 54.9 percent of the snaps for the Patriots and doesn’t have a single game with more than six targets. He did catch five passes against Denver in the AFC title game, but this Seahawks defense is elite in the secondary, ranking ninth in the NFL in opponent completion percentage during the regular season.

Diggs has just nine games (out of 20) with five or more catches, and he’s cleared this prop just three times since Week 12 of the regular season.

Brian – UNDER 4.5

The only reason to bet this is if you think the Pats go dink-and-dunk and Diggs catches a bunch of short passes over the middle. Otherwise, this is a fade for me.

Bet 7: Favorite Anytime TD Scorer

Mac - Cooper Kupp (+265)

Who better for the Seahawks to rely on in the passing game than their veteran receiver, who has not only won a Super Bowl, but has been named Super Bowl MVP. We know for a fact that the moment won’t be too big for Cooper Kupp, and with Christian Gonzalez likely shadowing Jaxon-Smith Njigba, it could open things up for the Seahawks’ No. 2 option. Kupp scored a touchdown in the NFC Championship, and I love his odds to find the end zone again on Sunday.

Peter – Drake Maye (+285)

Don’t sleep on Drake Maye’s legs in this game. He has 24 carries for 141 yards and a score in the playoffs, and the Patriots have used his legs in just about every high-leverage situation so far this postseason, including a designed run touchdown in the AFC Championship Game.

Maye ran for four scores during the regular season, and he may have to get creative in this matchup against an elite Seattle defense. I wish the odds were a little longer for this prop (they likely would be during the regular season), but Maye has at least 10 carries in two of his three playoff games, making him a worthy pick on Sunday.

Brian – Jaxon Smith-Njigba -110

It’s not a sexy pic, but it is my favorite. The Pats gave up 17 TDs to opposing WRs in the regular season, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL, and have given up one in each of the playoff games. Kupp has the better odds, but JSN is the better player.

Bet 8: Coin Toss Result

Mac - Heads

I long ago decided I was a heads guy. Remember, tails never fails, until it does.

Peter – Tails

It never fails.

Brian - Tails

I only bet tails in this market. Once you declare, there’s no going back.

Bet 9: Gatorade Bath Color

Mac - Red (+1100)

It’s been a long time since Red Gatorade had been dumped on the winning coach at the Super Bowl, but why not take a shot on the long shot here? Throw away meaningless recent trends and history and let’s try to cash in big on an unexpected Gatorade color.

Peter – Blue (+260)

This was New England’s color of choice in both of the Super Bowls where it ended up dumping Gatorade on Bill Belichick, and it has hit in four of the last 10 Super Bowls. Plus, blue goes with the color scheme for both squads!

Brian -- Lemon Lime/Green +250

It’s my favorite flavor. What, you bet on this market a different way?!

Bet 10: Super Bowl MVP

Mac - Kenneth Walker (+850)

We’ve already been shown the Seahawks aren’t afraid to make Kenneth Walker the feature running back with Zach Charbonnet sidelined. He’s also already proven to be effective both on the ground and in the air as a receiver. Let’s also remember the Seahawks run the ball on 50% of their plays, the second-highest rate in the NFL. Walker will get plenty of work on Sunday, and if he’s effective, he’s going to be a great bet to be named Super Bowl MVP.

Peter – Drake Maye (+240)

I think New England pulls off the upset in this game, and Maye’s legs may be a major reason why. The Patriots quarterback has constantly made plays on the ground in the playoffs, rushing for 141 yards and a score on 24 carries.

Quarterbacks win this award more often than not (34 out of 59 Super Bowls), and Maye is a pretty solid value at north of 2/1.

Brian – Sam Darnold +115

In boring, low-scoring games, as I expect this to be, longshots have a better chance of winning. Or, other times they give it to the player who does little, but plays a premium position. I’m thinking it’s the latter this time around. Darnold might not throw for a ton of yards or TDs, but he will be under center for the winning team, which always means a lot.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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