Siena vs. Merrimack Prediction, Odds for MAAC Championship Final

The No. 1 and No. 3 seeds in the MAAC are set to face off on Tuesday night with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line.

Gerry McNamara’s Siena Saints have completely turned things around since he took over in the 2024-25 season. Siena won just four games in the 2023-24 season, but it’s now on the verge of an NCAA Tournament berth after a 13-7 season in the MAAC.

Meanwhile, the top-seeded Merrimack Warriors won three games in a row and were elite in conference play (17-3) this season.

The Saints have not been able to beat the Warriors this season, losing by four and seven points in their two meetings. Yet, Merrimack is just a 3.5-point favorite in a neutral site game in this championship final.

Can the Saints complete their insane turnaround to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for the MAAC Final.

Siena vs. Merrimack Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Siena +3.5 (-108)
Merrimack -3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

Siena: +142
Merrimack: -170

Total

124.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Siena vs. Merrimack How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, March 10
Time: 9:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Jim Whelan Boardwalk Hall
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
Siena record: 22-11
Merrimack record: 23-10

Siena vs. Merrimack Key Player to Watch

Kevair Kennedy, Guard, Merrimack

The 2025-26 MAAC Player of the Year, Kevair Kennedy averaged 18.5 points, 4.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists per game during the regular season, shooting 45.9 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3.

The freshman has put together two big performances in the MAAC Tournament, scoring 24 points in a blowout win over Sacred Heart in the quarterfinals before dropping 16 in a semifinal win over Marist.

In two games against Siena this season, Kennedy averaged 23.0 points, 1.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game, but he shot just 37.8 percent from the field.

Siena vs. Merrimack Prediction and Pick

Both of these teams have been strong defensively in the 2025-26 season, as Siena ranks 60th in opponent effective field goal percentage while the Warriors are 16th.

Merrimack has dominated in MAAC play this season, and it’s elite at defending the 3-ball, holding opponents to just 30.4 percent shooting from beyond the arc. That’s a major issue for Siena, which already struggles to shoot the 3 (327th in 3-point percentage). Now, the Saints don’t take a ton of 3s either, but Merrimack does, ranking 48th in the country in 3-point rate.

That has helped the Warriors go 2-0 against the Saints, and they are 10-6-1 against the spread when favored this season.

KenPom currently has Merrimack as the No. 173 team in the country while Siena is 196th. Both of these teams rank outside the top-300 in adjusted tempo – so I don’t mind an UNDER play in this game – but I think the Warriors end up with the win.

Pick: Merrimack Moneyline (-170 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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