Spurs vs. Kings Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Friday, March 7

The Sacramento Kings are within striking distance of the No. 6 seed in the Western Conference, but they suffered a tough loss on the road against the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday.

Sacramento is down star big man Domantas Sabonis due to a hamstring injury, and that will limit one of its key advantages on Friday against the Victor Wembanyama-less San Antonio Spurs.

After trading for De’Aaron Fox and appearing to make a push for the play-in tournament in the West, the Spurs have struggled since Wemby was ruled out for the season. While this may not be the year the Spurs break into the playoffs, they have some promising young players, especially Rookie of the Year favorite Stephon Castle.

The Kings are favored on Friday night, but can they overcome the loss of Sabonis to pick up a much-needed win for their playoff push in the West?

Here’s a quick look at the odds for this game, some players to bet on in the prop market and my prediction for Kings-Spurs.

Spurs vs. Kings Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Spurs +6 (-110)
Kings -6 (-110)

Moneyline

Spurs: +190
Kings: -230

Total

236 (Over -108/Under -112)

Spurs vs. Kings How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 7
Time: 10:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Golden 1 Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC Sports California, Bally Sports Southwest
Spurs record: 26-34
Kings record: 32-29

Spurs vs. Kings Injury Reports

Spurs Injury Report

Riley Minix – out
Victor Wembanyama – out
Charles Bassey – out
Harrison Ingram – out
David Duke Jr. – out

Kings Injury Report

Malik Monk – out
Domantas Sabonis – out

Spurs vs. Kings Best NBA Prop Bets

San Antonio Spurs Best Prop Bet

Stephon Castle OVER 16.5 Points (-110)

Rookie Stephon Castle has figured things out, scoring 17 or more points in each of his last four games, pushing his season average to 13.2 points per game.

While Castle still has room to grow as a shooter, he's now attempting 18.5 shots per game over this four-game stretch. If that usage keeps up, he’s a near impossible player to fade, especially since he’s hitting 50.0 percent of his shots from the field (only 28.6 percent from 3) over that stretch.

Sacramento Kings Best Prop Bet

Jonas Valanciunas OVER 11.5 Rebounds (+100)

In three games without Sabonis (the Kings star went down early against Houston), Valanciunas has 14, nine and 13 rebounds.

Now, he’s taking on a San Antonio team that ranks 29th in the NBA in rebounding percentage in its last 10 games, a direct impact of the absence of Victor Wembanyama.

I expect Valanciunas to patrol the paint again on Friday, and he’s averaging 8.0 boards per game for the season despite playing mainly a bench role. He’s undervalued at this number tonight.

Spurs vs. Kings Prediction and Pick

Even though the Kings are coming off a loss, they still rank sixth in the NBA in net rating over their last 10 games.

That’s significantly better than the Spurs, who are just 20th in that stretch.

Sacramento has gone under .500 against the spread as a home favorite, but I can’t trust the Spurs with Wemby out for the season. San Antonio lost by 27 at home to this Kings team earlier in the season, and it has some ugly losses, including two to New Orleans, since Wemby was put on the shelf.

The Kings have won seven of their last 10, and they have a lot more to play for than San Antonio, as the No. 6 seed is still within reach at this point in the season.

I think the Kings are being severely undervalued at this price since they rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive rating over their last 10 games.

Pick: Kings -6 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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