Spurs vs. Thunder Opening Series Odds (Thunder Favored to Advance, But Expect a Long Series)

All season long, NBA fans have been clamoring for a Western Conference Finals matchup between the two best young teams in the league.

Now, we have it.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Oklahoma City Thunder (the No. 1 seed in the West) are favored to win the NBA Finals – and this series – heading into Monday’s Game 1 against the San Antonio Spurs (the No. 2 seed in the West) and Victor Wembanyama.

San Antonio closed out the Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference semis on Friday night while the Thunder have been off for quite some time after knocking off the Los Angeles Lakers in four games. OKC is 8-0 so far in the playoffs, and it’s the odds-on favorite to win the title in the latest odds.

So, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the Thunder are favored to win this series, even though it was the Spurs that won four of the five regular-season meetings between these teams.

Let’s take a look at the opening odds for all of the series markets ahead of Game 1.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spurs vs. Thunder Series Odds

Spurs: +210
Thunder: -260

Based on these odds (-260), the Thunder have an implied probability of 72.22 percent to win this series. Even though OKC lost the regular-season series with San Antonio, oddsmakers are clearly trusting the defending champs with home court.

San Antonio needed five games to get past Portland six to get past Minnesota, and there’s no doubt that the Thunder are a massive step up in class. OKC remains an odds-on favorite to win the NBA Finals, so it’s pretty clear that Vegas expects SGA and company to advance.

Spurs vs. Thunder Correct Score Odds

Thunder in 7: +310
Thunder in 5: +330
Thunder in 6: +450
Spurs in 6: +550
Thunder in 4: +550
Spurs in 7: +800
Spurs in 5: +1400
Spurs in 4: +2200

Just because the Thunder are favored, it doesn’t mean this won’t be a good series. The most likely outcome for this matchup – at DraftKings Sportsbook – is for the Thunder to win in seven games (+310).

OKC has yet to lose a game in the 2026 postseason, but another sweep is set at +550, which is tied for the fourth-best odds with the Spurs winning this series in six games. Outside of the Spurs winning in six, their next outcome (Spurs in 7) is priced at +800. Oddsmakers do not expect San Antonio to win in five (+1400) or four (+2200) games if it does pull off the upset.

Spurs vs. Thunder Series Spread

Spurs +1.5 (-110)
Thunder -1.5 (-110)

Will this series go the distance? Based on the series spread, oddsmakers are essentially giving it a 50/50 shot that the Spurs are able to take the Thunder to seven games. This is right in line with the correct score odds favoring OKC to win in seven.

Both of these teams have avoided a Game 7 to this point in the playoffs, but this could be a long battle between the two teams that have been the best in the NBA all season long.

Spurs vs. Thunder Series Total Games

5.5 (Over -160/Under +130)

According to the implied probability of -160 odds, there is over a 61 percent chance that this series reaches at least six games.

If you aren’t sold on who is winning this series, taking the OVER on the number of games while it’s still priced at -160 may be the best way to wager on this series. OKC has gone UNDER this number in back-to-back matchups, but it should have a much tougher time with a healthy San Antonio squad than it did with Phoenix or the Los Angeles Lakers.

However, the Thunder did need just five games to dispose of Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals in 2025.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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