Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 5

It doesn’t get much bigger than Game 5 in a 2-2 series!

The Western Conference Finals between the San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder could end up going the distance after these teams traded blows over the first four games of this series, with San Antonio’s defense dominating in Game 4 to even things at two games apiece.

Now, the Thunder are favored at home in Game 5, even though they’re going to be short-handed for this matchup.

Ajay Mitchell (calf) is listed as out for Game 5 while Jalen Williams (hamstring) is questionable once again after missing most of Game 2 and both Games 3 and 4. OKC’s offense suffered without both players in Game 4, scoring just 82 points.

There’s a lot of pressure on two-time league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to carry this OKC offense, but he’s shooting under 40 percent from the field in this series, though he has dished out 40 assists.

Meanwhile, the Spurs have gotten two huge scoring games from Victor Wembanyama (41 and 33 points) in their two wins, and he’s worth considering in the prop market in Game 5.

I’m eyeing three bets for this game – two props and a side – as these two contenders look to get one step closer to clinching a spot in the Finals next week.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, picks and much more to help you bet on Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals.

Spurs vs. Thunder Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Spurs +5.5 (-110)
Thunder -5.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Spurs: +164
Thunder: -198

Total

215.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Spurs vs. Thunder How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, May 26
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Paycom Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: Tied 2-2

Spurs vs. Thunder Injury Reports

Spurs Injury Report

None to report

Thunder Injury Report

Jalen Williams -- questionable
Thomas Sorber -- out
Ajay Mitchell -- out

Spurs vs. Thunder Best NBA Prop Bets

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Victor Wembanyama 25+ Points (-135)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Wemby is a great target in the prop market:

Wembanyama has scored 26 or more points in three of the four games in this series, and he was clearly looking for his shot from the jump in Game 4.

The All-NBA center ended up with 22 shot attempts and nine free-throw attempts on Sunday night, putting together a 33-point game. He’s now scored 74 combined points in the two Spurs’ wins, taking over 20 shots in both games.

So, I expect him to be aggressive in Game 5 with a chance to swing this series. Wembanyama has seven games with 25 or more points in the playoffs, and he’s shooting better from the field (53.4 percent) and from 3 (37.1 percent) than he did in the regular season.

The Thunder don’t have a one-on-one answer for Wemby, and he’s been shooting a few more 3-pointers in this series (19 over his last three games) than he did in the first two rounds. That gives him a little higher of a floor when it comes to these scoring props, especially if he’s going to hit over 37 percent.

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Chet Holmgren UNDER 20.5 Points and Rebounds (-106)

It’s been a rough series for Chet Holmgren, as he’s averaging just 11.3 points and 6.0 rebounds per game while shooting 46.9 percent from the field. Holmgren is only taking 8.0 shots per game, which simply isn’t enough from a guy who was an All-NBA selection for his play in the regular season.

Holmgren’s lack of aggressiveness on offense has cost the Thunder, and he’s finished with 16, 17, 17 and 19 points and rebounds so far in this series.

Even with the Thunder back at home, it’s hard to just Holmgren in this market if he’s only going to take eight shots per night. He’s now known to be a dominant rebounder, and the star forward only has one game with double-digit shot attempts in the whole series.

I think he’s a fade candidate until further notice.

Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction and Pick

Did San Antonio figure something out defensively in Game 4?

The Spurs held the Thunder to just 82 points, and OKC’s offense has really struggled without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor. The two-time MVP may not be shooting the ball as well as he usually does, but he’s the only true creator on offense with Mitchell and Williams banged up.

Holmgren’s lack of contributions on offense have become a major concern for the Thunder, and they need more from players like Jared McCain, Cason Wallace and others that are being asked to play bigger roles than they should in a Conference Final.

San Antonio won outright in Game 1, and has covered the spread in two of the four games in this series. Overall, the Spurs are 11-6 against the spread as road underdogs in the 2025-26 season, including a 1-1 record in this series.

Game 2 was a nine-point loss by the Spurs, but it was a one-possession game in the closing minutes. I’m not sure if San Antonio will pull off the upset, but I do think we’re in line for another close matchup in Game 5.

Both of these teams know how important this game is for their chances of winning the series, and with De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper in the lineup, I think San Antonio has a slightly higher ceiling than it did in the first two games of this series.

With the OKC offense struggling to get going, I think San Antonio (No. 1 in defensive rating this postseason) at least keeps this game close.

Pick: Spurs +5.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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