Spurs vs. Thunder Series Prediction, Odds, Best Bets for NBA Western Conference Finals

All postseason long, it’s been pretty clear that the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs were on a collision course in the Western Conference.

Now, they’ll finally meet with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line in the Western Conference Finals.

These teams played five times during the regular season, with the Spurs winning four of those matchups, including the first three meetings of the campaign:

Dec. 13: Spurs 111, Thunder 109 – OKC was an 11.5-point favorite
Dec. 23: Spurs 130, Thunder 110 – OKC was a 6.5-point favorite
Dec. 25: Spurs 117, Thunder 102 – OKC was a 9.5-point favorite
Jan. 13: Thunder 119, Spurs 98 – OKC was an 8.5-point favorite
Feb. 4: Spurs 116, Thunder 106 – San Antonio was a 9.5-point favorite

Oddsmakers have set the Thunder as the favorites to win this series – and the NBA Finals – but Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs aren’t going to go quietly in this series. They likely feel that they deserve to be favored in this series, yet they’re 6.5-point road dogs in Game 1.

When it comes to the series, OKC winning in seven games is the most likely outcome based on the odds at DraftKings. So, this could be a long, competitive series between the two teams that won the most games in the league in the regular season.

OKC has yet to lose a game in the playoffs, and it has the No. 2 postseason net rating (behind only the New York Knicks) heading into Game 1. The Thunder are also expected to get Jalen Williams (hamstring) back for this series, a massive lift after he was their second-best player during last season’s title run.

The Spurs knocked off Portland (in five games) and Minnesota (in six games), though they’ve only lost one game (Game 1 against Minnesota) when Wembanyama started and finished the matchup.

So, how do we bet on this series?

Here’s a breakdown of the various series markets, as well as my exact prediction for the Western Conference Finals.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spurs vs. Thunder Series Odds

Spurs: +210
Thunder: -260

Based on these odds (-260), the Thunder have an implied probability of 72.22 percent to win this series. The Spurs won the season series between these squads 4-1, but Oklahoma City has a huge advantage when it comes to experience – and rest – entering Monday’s Game 1.

The Thunder swept their first two opponents this postseason, posting a net rating of plus-17.0 in the process.

San Antonio needed five games to get past Portland six to get past Minnesota, and there’s no doubt that the Thunder are a massive step up in class. OKC remains an odds-on favorite to win the NBA Finals, so it’s pretty clear that Vegas expects SGA and company to advance.

Spurs vs. Thunder Correct Score Odds

Thunder in 7: +310
Thunder in 5: +330
Thunder in 6: +450
Spurs in 6: +550
Thunder in 4: +550
Spurs in 7: +800
Spurs in 5: +1400
Spurs in 4: +2200

Just because the Thunder are favored, it doesn’t mean this won’t be a good series.

In fact, the most likely outcome for this matchup is for the Thunder to win in seven games (+310). So, even though OKC owns the top three choices in the “correct score” market, two of them have this series at least reaching Game 6.

The odds for OKC to pull off another sweep are set at +550, which is tied with the Spurs winning this series in six games (the fourth most likely outcome). Outside of the Spurs winning in six, their next outcome (Spurs in 7) is priced at +800.

If one thing is clear, it’s that oddsmakers don’t expect the Spurs to win as easily as they did in the regular season when they went 4-1 against OKC. The odds for the Spurs to win in five (+1400) or to sweep (+2200) are by far the biggest long shots in this market.

Spurs vs. Thunder Series Spread

Spurs +1.5 (-110)
Thunder -1.5 (-110)

So, the biggest question for the Western Conference Finals is pretty clear: Will this series go the distance?

Based on the series spread, oddsmakers are essentially giving it a 50/50 shot that the Spurs are able to take the Thunder to seven games. This is right in line with the correct score odds favoring OKC to win in seven.

We haven’t seen either of these teams forced into a Game 7 scenario in this playoff run, but OKC had two Game 7s (second round and NBA Finals) on its way to a title last season.

Spurs vs. Thunder Series Total Games

5.5 (Over -160/Under +130)

Based on these odds (-160 to go OVER), there is an implied probability of over 61 percent that this series reaches at least six games. That’s where one of my favorite bets for this matchup comes in.

If you aren’t sold on who is winning this series, taking the OVER on the number of games while it’s still priced at -160 may be the best way to wager on this series.

OKC has gone UNDER this number in back-to-back matchups, but it should have a much tougher time with a healthy San Antonio squad than it did with Phoenix or the Los Angeles Lakers. Plus, the Spurs needed six games to get past Minnesota, and oddsmakers clearly believe that San Antonio winning in six or seven games is realistically the only way it pulls off an upset.

It is worth noting that OKC needed just five games to beat Minnesota in the Western Conference Finals last season, but it went to seven games against Denver – arguably the No. 2 team in the league last season – in the second round.

Spurs vs. Thunder Series Prediction and Pick

I’m expecting a long series, especially since the Spurs had some things defensively that worked against OKC during the regular season.,

Wembanyama’s rim protection really forces the Thunder to rely more on their outside shooting, and getting Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and others to shoot 3s is a win for the Spurs every time down. The Lakers tried to get the ball out of SGA’s hands in the second round, and they led at half in multiple games before running out of gas on offense in the second half without Luka Doncic.

The Spurs shouldn’t have that problem. They have Stephon Castle and several others to throw at SGA, though they do lack a Chet Holmgren defender if Wembanyama is going to be used as a rim protector against Isaiah Hartenstein. The Thunder could go small to try and force a Chet vs. Wemby matchup.

On the Thunder side, Williams’ presence could be the ultimate X-Factor in this series. He played in four of the games against San Antonio in the regular season, but the Thunder have another level they can reach in the playoffs with him on offense. Williams and Ajay Mitchell are more than capable of carrying the offense when SGA is out of the game, while the Spurs are going to need De’Aaron Fox to shoot the ball better than he did against Minnesota if they want to pull off the upset.

I want to give the Spurs credit for multiple things:

They dominated OKC in the regular season – even with the Thunder healthy.
They have a top-three defense in the league.

That being said, the Thunder are a deeper team and have the No. 1 defense in the league. OKC also has a major rest and experience advantage in this series.

I think we’re in for a long matchup, but I’m taking OKC to reach a second straight Finals.

Pick: Thunder in 7 (-260, +310 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and get $100 in bonus bets instantly when you make your first $5 bet.

Add us as a preferred source on Google