Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 4

Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves’ backs are against the wall on Sunday night, as they trail the San Antonio Spurs 2-1 in the Western Conference semifinals.

Minnesota dropped Game 3 at home by seven points, and it’s an underdog for the fourth game in a row in this series – and the 10th time this postseason – on Sunday. The Wolves upset Denver in the first round, but they need a win in Game 4 to give themselves a real shot to knock off the No. 2-seeded Spurs.

San Antonio has the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA Playoffs, and Victor Wembanyama (39 points, 15 rebounds, five blocks) took over Game 3 to lead the Spurs to a road win. Edwards (32 points) had a strong showing in Game 3 as he continues to work his way back from a knee injury that cost him the end of the Denver series.

I’m eyeing a player prop and a side for this conference semifinal showdown, but first let’s take a look at the betting odds for Game 4.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Spurs -4.5 (-110)
Timberwolves +4.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Spurs: -192
Timberwolves: +160

Total

218.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Spurs vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

Date: Sunday, May 10
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: Spurs lead 2-1

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Spurs Injury Report

None to report

Timberwolves Injury Report

Donte DiVincenzo – out

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Victor Wembanyama 12+ Rebounds (-169)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Wemby is worth a look in Game 4:

This postseason, Wemby is averaging 17.1 rebound chances per game, and he’s grabbed 15 rebounds in three straight games in the series with Minnesota.

Since returning from a concussion in Game 4 against Portland, Wembanyama has at least 12 boards in every game (five games) while playing over 34 minutes per night.

There’s no doubt that the Spurs star can dominate the glass with his size, and he averaged 11.5 rebounds per game in the regular season despite playing less than 30 minutes per game.

The Timberwolves are the No. 2 rebounding team in the playoffs (based on rebound percentage), but they haven’t slowed down Wemby in this series. I’ll gladly take him to get 12 or more boards for the sixth game in a row, and he could be worth a look in a rebound ladder in Game 4.

Spurs vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

Minnesota lost Game 3 at home – its first home loss of the playoffs – but there are a few reasons to buy the Wolves as underdogs in Game 4.

San Antonio got a huge game from Wembanyama (39 points, 15 rebounds, five blocks) in Game 3, and the Timberwolves shot under 40 percent from the field in a seven-point loss. Minnesota lost the third quarter by seven points, which turned out to be the difference in the game.

After a turnover-laden Game 2, Minnesota cleaned things up on that end in Game 3, turning it over just 12 times. Anthony Edwards also looked back to his usual self, dominating offensive possessions on his way to a 32-point night.

The Spurs are an elite defensive team, but the Wolves did a pretty good job containing the Spurs’ offense in Games 1 and 3. Wembanyama was the difference in Game 3, but Minnesota (5-5 against the spread as a home dog) has been really solid at home in this postseason.

I don’t think the Wolves will go down easy in this series, and they’ve built up a ton of playoff equity over the last two seasons to trust in this spot. With Edwards playing a bigger role, the Wolves are worth a look with this spread set outside of one possession.

Pick: Timberwolves +4.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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