St. Bonaventure vs. George Mason Prediction, Odds for A-10 Championship 2nd Round

The St. Bonaventure Bonnies hung 99 points on the La Salle Explorers in the first round of the A-10 tournament, but they are set as underdogs in the second round against the George Mason Patriots.

George Mason was 11-7 in A-10 play during the regular season, but it put together a solid 23-8 record overall. The Patriots had wins by four and 13 over the Bonnies in the regular season, yet oddsmakers have them set as just 3.5-point favorites in this matchup.

St. Bonaventure has really struggled on the defensive end, ranking 251st in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency this season. It also didn’t exactly thrive in the A-10 during the regular season, going 4-14 overall.

So, bettors may not want to put too much stock into the win over La Salle, even though the Bonnies’ offense looked elite in that matchup.

Here’s a look at the betting odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this A-10 clash on Thursday.

St. Bonaventure vs. George Mason Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

St. Bonaventure +3.5 (-110)
George Mason -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

St. Bonaventure: +160
George Mason: -192

Total

143.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

St. Bonaventure vs. George Mason How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 12
Time: 2:00 p.m. EST
Venue: PPG Paints Arena
How to Watch (TV): USA Network
St. Bonaventure record: 16-16
George Mason record: 23-8

St. Bonaventure vs. George Mason Key Player to Watch

Kory Mincy, Guard, George Mason

Kory Mincy leads George Mason in points and steals per game this season, averaging 14.0 points per game while shooting 45.0 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from 3. He’s struggled shooting the 3-ball in two meetings with the Bonnies, knocking down just 27.3 percent of his attempts.

Mincy had some rough games in late February, but he enters the A-10 Tournament off of two of his better games of the season. The junior guard had 18 points in a loss to VCU and 15 points in a blowout win over Saint Louis to close the regular season.

St. Bonaventure vs. George Mason Prediction and Pick

The Patriots are going to want to attack the basket in this matchup, as the Bonnies are 248th in the country in opponent 2-point percentage and 288th in opponent effective field goal percentage this season.

St. Bonaventure also has struggled with fouling, which plays right into the Patriots’ style. The Bonnies are 333rd in free-throw rate and 150th in opponent free-throw rate this season while George Mason is 33rd and 31st in those two categories. The Patriots aren’t an elite offense – 100th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency – but they make up for that by getting a ton of free throws.

I also think the Bonnies' offense benefitted from playing a La Salle team that was 219th in adjusted defensive efficiency in the 2025-26 season. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 83rd in opponent effective field goal percentage and 93rd in opponent 3-point percentage.

The Bonnies shoot the 3 at a high level (22nd in 3-point percentage), but they just 331st in 3-point rate. After losing by four or more in both meetings with the Patriots, I’m fading the Bonnies at this price on Thursday.

Pick: George Mason -3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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