Steelers Win Total Projection for 2025 Season (Will Tomlin's .500 Streak Continue?)

Mike Tomlin and his Pittsburgh Steelers once again defied expectations in 2024, posting another competitive season despite instability at quarterback.

Tomlin steered the Steelers back into the postseason at 10-7 for his 18th consecutive season of finishing at .500 or better. But it was the fourth time in the last five years that the Steelers lost in the wild card round.

One might begin to question if hanging on the brink is really the best place to be anymore when Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game in seven years and hasn’t made it to the conference championship since 2010.

We’ll look at how oddsmakers are valuing their outlook for 2025.

Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 Win Total Odds

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Over 8.5: +105
Under 8.5: -125

Can Rodgers Resurrect Himself and the Steelers Offense in 2025?

All eyes are on whether Aaron Rodgers can resurrect his MVP form from several years ago or if the best of him has come and gone. We know that he can at least bring offensive competence that the Steelers have lacked since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement.

Despite a forgettable 2024 season with the Jets, Rodgers still posted top-10 numbers in passing yards (3,897) and touchdowns (28) — all while recovering from a torn Achilles. Much of the Jets’ failure last year stemmed from broader dysfunction rather than Rodgers himself, and the Steelers are betting that a healthier, better-supported version of the 41-year-old can deliver a short-term spark. He’ll have the newly acquired DK Metcalf now leading the receiving corps following George Pickens’ departure to Dallas, giving the Steelers an upgrade as their No. 1 target.

The defense remains the backbone of this Steelers team and should once again rank among the NFL’s elite. T.J. Watt continues to be the unit’s emotional and physical anchor, and Pittsburgh bolstered its depth with key offseason additions like cornerback Darius Slay Jr. among other effective acquisitions. The team also leaned heavily on defense in the 2025 NFL Draft, including first-round pick Derrick Harmon, a disruptive tackle out of Oregon.

But the AFC North remains one of the toughest divisions in football, with what I project as two legitimate Super Bowl contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati. Oddsmakers have set the Steelers’ win total at 8.5, shaded to the under, likely due to uncertainty around Rodgers' integration. While the ceiling for this team is clearly higher with Rodgers in the fold, winning the division is a steep task given the late timing of his arrival and the competition.

Super Bowl talk is premature as this is more of a transitional year. A more realistic outlook for the Steelers looks to be yet another above-.500 campaign, with nine or ten wins a reasonable expectation if Rodgers stays healthy. Pittsburgh has cleared this total in five straight seasons and I can’t see regression with improvements to the offense. After all, it's Rodgers last NFL season, which has to be worth at least some must-see theatre.

Create a new FanDuel Sportsbook account, and you can get $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 wager. Download the FanDuel app and deposit a minimum of $5 to claim your new-user bonus today.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.