Sweet 16 Upset Betting Predictions: Ranking the Most-Likely Upsets Remaining in March Madness

Upsets were few and far between in the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament, but that doesn't mean we won't see a few in the remaining handful of rounds.

In this article, the SI Betting Team will rank their top three upset picks for this week's Sweet 16. Let's dive into them.

All odds listed in this article are via FanDuel Sportsbook

Top 3 Sweet 16 Upset Picks

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3) Iowa +106 vs. Nebraska via Peter Dewey

Nebraska squeaked by Vanderbilt in the second round, and now it has to face a familiar opponent in the Iowa Hawkeyes in the Sweet 16.

These teams split their two meetings during the regular season, and Iowa may be able to take advantage of the Cornhuskers on the glass after knocking off Florida in the Round of 32.

Florida is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, yet the Hawkeyes outrebounded them and forced 11 turnovers in Sunday’s win. Nebraska doesn’t rebound well on the offensive glass (311th in the country in offensive rebound rate), so we should see a lot of one-and-done possessions in this Sweet 16 matchup.

The Hawkeyes are going to have their hands full with Nebraska’s shooting, but the Cornhuskers allow a ton of 3-point attempts (361st in opponent 3-point rate) despite holding opponents to 30.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Could the Hawkeyes end up being the story of this year’s tournament? They have the offense to do it – 18th in eFG% – and are consistent at playing at their slower pace (361st in KenPom’s adjusted tempo). I think these teams are pretty even, especially since Iowa already beat Nebraska once this season.

2) St. John's +235 vs. Duke via Peter Dewey

Rick Pitino’s St. John’s squad has defended at a high level all season long, and it may take advantage of the Blue Devils’ backcourt in the Sweet 16.

Caleb Foster’s injury has lowered the ceiling for Duke, and it was nearly upset in the first round against No. 16 Siena.

The Blue Devils rebounded to blow out TCU in the second half of round two, but they are more vulnerable than ever entering the Sweet 16.

St. John’s is eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, 23rd in opponent effective field goal percentage, and 40th in opponent turnover rate. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils’ biggest weakness comes with the turnover battle, as they are 127th in turnover rate and outside the top-100 in opponent turnover rate this season.

St. John’s just beat a potential No. 1 overall pick in Darryn Peterson, and the Johnnies are a massive step up in class from Duke’s first two opponents. I also think that Pitino’s coaching experience is hard to look past at this stage in the tournament, especially since St. John’s has been on a massive run for weeks, culminating in a Big East title.

1) Illinois +132 vs. Houston via Iain MacMillan

The key to beating Illinois is stopping the 3-ball. The Fighting Illini rank 15th in the country in 3-point shot rate, with 50.4% of its shots coming from beyond the arc. Luckily for them, the perimeter of the Houston defense is its weak point, if there is one. The Cougars rank 44th in opponent 3-point field goal percentage, allowing teams to shoot 31.4% from beyond the arc.

The most fascinating thing about this matchup is that both teams play an extremely fundamental and disciplined style of basketball, evidenced by the fact that they rank first and second in effective possession ratio. That's going to work against Houston, as the Cougars rely on winning the rebounding and turnover battle against their opponents to overcome the fact that they rank 142nd in effective field goal percentage.

Illinois can match them in those areas, while also boasting much better shooting numbers, ranking 34th in eFG%.

The Fighting Illini have a real chance to upset the Cougars and advance to the Elite Eight.

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