Tennessee vs. Texas Prediction, Odds, Key Players to Watch for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

Betting odds, pick and prediction for the Tennessee-Texas matchup in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee is an underdog in the Sweet 16. / Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Two SEC teams meet in the Sweet 16 in the 2025 Women’s NCAA Tournament, but oddsmakers have one team set as a sizable favorite.

The No. 1 seed Texas Longhorns are favored by 7.5 against the No. 5 Tennessee Volunteers, who have outscored their opponents by 50 points through two games in the NCAA Tournament.

Texas is a popular Final Four pick, but can it take down a Tennessee team that loves to press and wreak havoc on the defensive end?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch and my prediction for this Sweet 16 contest. 

Tennessee vs. Texas Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Spread

• Tennessee +7.5 (-102)
• Texas -7.5 (-120)

Moneyline

• Tennessee: +270
• Texas: -355

Total

• 154.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Tennessee vs. Texas How to Watch

• Date: Saturday, March 29
• Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Legacy Arena at BJCC
• How to Watch (TV): ABC
• Tennessee record: 24-9
• Texas record: 33-3

Tennessee vs. Texas Key Players to Watch

Tennessee 

Talaysia Cooper: Tennessee has five players who average over 10.0 points per game this season, but they’re led by Cooper, who had 19 points, eight rebounds, and five assists in the win over Ohio State in the Sweet 16. Cooper led the SEC in steals per game (3.2) and averaged over 16 points per game. 

Texas

Madison Booker: The leading scorer for the Longhorns, Booker is averaging 16.0 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game this season. In an earlier matchup with Tennessee, Booker finished with 26 points on 11-of-22 shooting from the field. Texas will need a big game out of her to advance to the Elite 8. 

Tennessee vs. Texas Prediction and Pick

Earlier this season, these teams played at Texas with the Longhorns pulling out a four-point win, 80-76.

Despite that, oddsmakers are buying the Volunteers as a real threat to pull off an upset in this game, and I believe that is a major mistake.

Tennessee can throw teams out of whack with its press, and it substitutes five players in and out every few minutes to keep fresh bodies on the floor. The Volunteers play a style that nobody else does in college basketball – or at least in a Power 5 conference.

So far in the tournament, Tennessee has wins by 35 and 15 points. It easily handled No. 4 Ohio State in the second round, and I think it is live to upset a Texas team that hasn’t exactly dominated other tournament teams (narrowly beating a banged-up LSU team and struggling against South Carolina in the SEC Tournament). 

Tennessee plays at a frenetic pace, ranking No. 1 in the country in points per game, No. 2 in 3-pointers made and No. 1 in total field goals attempted. I think it can give Texas a serious run on Saturday. 

Pick: Tennessee +7.5 (-102 at FanDuel)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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