Tennessee vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament 2nd Round

The Tennessee Volunteers made a statement in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, blowing out the Miami (OH) RedHawks by 22 points.

Now, the Volunteers are actually favored as the lower seed (No. 6) in the second round against the No. 3 Virginia Cavaliers.

So far, Virginia has dropped just five games in the 2025-26 season, but it struggled in the first round with Wright State, eventually winning by nine points.

The Cavaliers are actually ranked behind the Volunteers in KenPom's latest rankings, as Tennessee is No. 12 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency. Rick Barnes’ group is looking to make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament after an Elite 8 appearance in the 2025 tourney.

Here’s a look at the odds from the best betting sites, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this second-round battle.

Tennessee vs. Virginia Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Tennessee -1.5 (+102)
Virginia +1.5 (-122)

Moneyline

Tennessee: -118
Virginia: -102

Total

137.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Tennessee vs. Virginia How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 6:10 p.m. EST
Venue: Xfinity Mobile Arena
How to Watch (TV): TNT
Tennessee record: 23-11
Virginia record: 30-5

Tennessee vs. Virginia Best Prop Bet

Nate Ament UNDER 6.5 Rebounds (-115)

Ament is not expected to be 100 percent during March Madness due to a knee injury he suffered late in the season, and he played just 18 minutes and did not score in the opening round against Miami (OH).

Ament finished that game with three rebounds, but if he’s limited going forward, he’s a tough player to trust in the prop market.

The Cavaliers are 10th in the country in offensive rebound rate and 100th in defensive rebound rate this season, and Ament is only averaging 6.5 boards per game in the 2025-26 season. I think he’s a fade candidate if he doesn’t play his usual minutes on Sunday.

Tennessee vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick

Tennessee is a dominant rebounding team, ranking No. 1 in offensive rebound rate and No. 53 in defensive rebound rate this season. That could be an issue for Virginia (100th in defensive rebound rate), especially after it struggled to put away Wright State on Friday.

The Cavaliers posted a great record in the regular season, but they were just 1-3 in four meetings with ranked opponents. They did beat other NCAA Tournament teams like Miami, Ohio State, Texas and NC State, but Tennessee faced way more NCAA Tournament teams playing in the SEC.

Ament’s status is certainly a concern for the Volunteers, but they shut down a Miami (OH) offense that was one of the best mid-major offenses in the country this season.

The Volunteers defend the 3-ball extremely well, allowing opponents to shoot just 30.3 percent from deep (12th in the country). That could end up being a problem for a Virginia team that is 45th in the country in 3-point percentage and 37th in 3-point rate.

I’m going to trust the Volunteers’ defense to get them a win on Sunday.

Pick: Tennessee Moneyline (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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