Texans vs. Chiefs Best NFL Prop Bets for Divisional Round (Bet on Joe Mixon to Lead Houston's Offense)

Iain MacMillan | Jan 17, 2025

Bet on Joe Mixon to go over his rushing yards total against the Chiefs in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs. / Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

The Kansas City Chiefs, whose starters haven't played in over three weeks, will take the field on Saturday afternoon to begin their postseason big for the first three-peat in Super Bowl history.

Their first playoff opponent will be the AFC South champion Houston Texans, who are fresh off an upset against the Los Angeles Chargers. You can check out the odds and my best bet for the game in my betting preview, but in this article, we're going to focus on a few player props I like, including a play on Houston running back, Joe Mixon.

Chiefs vs. Texans Player Props

• Joe Mixon OVER 55.5 Rush Yards (-110) via BetMGM
• Patrick Mahomes OVER 23.5 Rush Yards (-114) via FanDuel
• Harrison Butker UNDER 1.5 Field Goals Made (+150) via DraftKings

Joe Mixon OVER 55.5 Rush Yards (-110)

The Texans would be smart to lean on their run game of they want any hope of upsetting the Chiefs, which is exactly what they did against the Chargers in the wild-card round when they handed him the ball 25 times for 106 yards and a touchdown.

The Chiefs have struggled against the run at times this season, ranking 11th in opponent rush EPA and 13th in opponent rush success rate. Unless the Texans get down by multiple scores early and have to abandon the run, I envision Mixon going over his rushing yards total.

Patrick Mahomes OVER 23.5 Rush Yards (-114)

Patrick Mahomes has always been known to take off with his legs and run the football when he needs to, but he leans on that part of his game even more in the postseason. In fact, he averaged 9.1 more rushing yards per game in the playoffs than the regular season.

* Patrick Mahomes career rushing in regular season: 3.9 carries, 20.0 yards, 0.13 TDs per game

* Patrick Mahomes career rushing in playoffs: 5.0 carries, 29.1 yards, 0.28 TDs per game

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) January 16, 2025

Let's ride that trend and bet on Mahomes to go for at least 24 yards on Sunday. Reminder to not celebrate winning this bet too early, late-game kneel-downs affect rushing yards totals and I've personally lost this exact bet a few times because of them. Wait until the final whistle before counting this one as a win.

Harrison Butker UNDER 1.5 Field Goals Made (+150)

Harrison Butker has struggled a bit since returning from injury, missing miss two field goals and an extra point in his last four starts. With that being said, it's not just Butker's accuracy issues that are making me lean toward the UNDER on his field goals made prop, it's more so the fact the Chiefs have a pretty big advantage in the red zone.

The Texans defense has struggled in the red zone this season, allowing opponents to score a touchdown on 62.22% of red zone trips against them. That could lead the Chiefs not having to rely on their field goal kicker many times on Saturday.

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You can check out all of Iain's bets here!