Texas Children’s Houston Open Picks, Props Predictions: Betting Brooks Koepka, Jake Knapp and Michael Thorbjornsen

Scottie Scheffler’s surprise withdrawal certainly put a damper on the Houston Open. It also sent odds tumbling for those still in the field. Such is the impact of the best player in the world.

The SI Golf betting panel muddles forward with picks for the Texas Children’s Houston Open from SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

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Scheffler was the headliner heading into this week, as he is at every tournament he enters, but we wish him and his family well as they reportedly await the arrival of another child, who will take a few thousand photos with crawling around trophies soon enough. Defending champion Min Woo Lee is slots in as the betting favorite at +1300 on FanDuel, followed by Chris Gotterup (+1800), Jake Knapp (+2000), Sam Burns (+2200), and Brooks Koepka (+2200).

Memorial Park GC is a bombers paradise with little water, bunkers, or rough to punish wayward drives. The greens run fast and there are tight chipping areas around them, necessitating a creative short game as well as distance off the tee.

Let’s get to our best bets for the tournament. Some of our bets were placed before Scheffler WD’d from the tournament, thus having different odds than those currently available. These are noted with an *. Full breakdown of every pick is below the graphic.

Houston Open betting picks. | Sports Illustrate

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Marco Penge +3800 (DraftKings)*

Memorial Park is all about how you drive the golf ball, and Marco Penge from England leads the entire field in strokes-gained off the tee over the past six months, including above Scottie Scheffler. Now is the time to buy in on Penge. He has posted two top-20 finishes in his last three starts, including a T4 finish at last week’s Valspar Championship, where he had his best approach performance of 2026

Brian Kirschner: Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)

I have waited long enough this season to deploy Brooks Koepka, and I think that this is the perfect week to do so. BK was very popular last week and he showed flashes of being very close to being fully back. Brooks had a couple of untimely doubles that put him out of contention but still managed to finish top 20. With Scottie out of the field, I think that Brooks has a great chance to get his first PGA Tour win in over 5 years.

Brad Thomas: Jake Knapp +2500 (DraftKings)

Jake Knapp is one of the more intriguing names at the top of the board, and it’s not just because of his elite driving. There’s still some mystery around what happened after the withdrawal a few weeks ago. His team said he was fine, looked the part, then followed it up with a missed cut and some of his worst golf of the season. But if you strip out those two events, the withdrawal and the missed cut, Knapp has been one of the best players in the world to start the year. If he gets back to that level, he immediately looks like the tournament favorite.

It makes sense when you dig into the profile. Knapp’s driving is a weapon, and that’s a common trait among past champions here. On top of that, he ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting over his last 36 rounds. That matters. Historically, winners at this event have almost always been inside the top three in putting for the week. So you’re getting a player who can overpower a course off the tee and then capitalize with the flatstick. If both show up, he’s not just in contention, he’s the guy to beat.

Byron Lindeque: Nicolai Hojgaard +2800 (DratKings)

Last week, Nicolai was ripping driver 340 yards into horrible spots around Innisbrook. This week, he can rip driver 340 yards to spots that should be horrible, but because they are basically playing in an open (Memorial) Park, he will get away with it a lot more. Along with his elite distance, Nicolai is also a fantastic iron player who can also make a lot of putts! He has a 3rd and a 6th this year already, which make up five top 30 finishes in six starts, with a T55 at a claustrophobic Valspar. It's time for the long-hitting Ryder Cupper to win his first PGA Tour event.

Cody Williams: Brooks Koepka +2500 (DraftKings)

Koepka is legitimately heating up as he gets into a rhythm back on the PGA Tour, coming into Houston off three straight Top 20 finishes. And the profile is nothing short of beautiful. He leads this field in SG: Approach over the last 24 rounds, has Top 40 length off the tee, and has been 15th in SG: Putting on Bermuda. He’s checking all of the right boxes to secure a statement win in his return from LIV.

Brian Giuffra: Michael Thorbjornsen +3700 (DraftKings)*

Thor is ready to drop the hammer. After a few Sunday stumbles this year, including at The Players, Thorbjornsen should be better prepared to secure his first win on Tour, and I couldn’t think of a better course fit. Long off the tee with a strong approach game to match, the only thing holding him back from a breakout win is the putter. Yet, he’s gained strokes putting in four of his last five events and his best putting performances have come on Poa greens. This is the week it all comes together.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan: Tony Finau +8000 (FanDuel)*

Remember Tony Finau? He’s not the golfer he used to be, but he has always had his best stuff at the Houston Open, winning this event in 2022 and finishing runner-up in 2024. He also quietly posted a strong T18 finish at last week’s Valspar Championship, where he gained +1.09 true strokes per round with his approach play and +1.93 strokes per round with his around-the-green play. His lack of accuracy off the tee won’t hurt him too much at Memorial Park. If he ever finds his peak form again, it’s going to happen at this tournament.

Brian Kirschner: Tony Finau +6600 (DraftKings)

We were on Tony Finau last week in this section and he honestly played very well for a 125/1 bet. I am more than happy to go back at this number this week. Tony Finau loves this golf course, with a win and a T2 since 2023. Finau’s irons and ARG green play were great last week. I think an easier driver course is going to help him a lot this week. Finau is trending towards a victory in 2026.

Brad Thomas: Tony Finau +6600 (DraftKings)

Tony Finau’s number has dropped significantly following the Scottie Scheffler news, but even with that move, it still doesn’t fully capture the upside he brings into this week. His game isn’t exactly where you’d want it right now, but it’s nowhere near bad enough to justify a price in that 60-1 to 70-1 range. We’ve seen the spike potential from Finau. He can go out and go low with the best of them, even if it hasn’t all come together across four rounds.

Lately, it’s been the driver that’s held him back. A few loose tee shots have taken him out of contention, but this setup helps offset that. At Memorial Park, wayward drives aren’t nearly as penal, which gives Finau more freedom off the tee. And when you look at the profile of past winners here, it’s not about being perfect off the tee. It’s about having elite driving upside, getting hot with the irons, and rolling in putts. That’s the path for Finau. He’s shown flashes with the approach play, and when the putter heats up, he’s more than capable of contending. He’s not all the way back to peak form, but he’s trending in the right direction and still carries more win equity than this price suggests.

Byron Lindeque: Alejandro Tosti +27500 (DraftKings)

Alejandro shows up to most venues like stale bread, but at Memorial Park, he arrives as Tosti. He has buttered betting cards with a T2 in 2024 and T5 in 2025 as his only two appearances here. He is exceptionally long off the tee, which is a prerequisite to win here. The spicy Argentine’s T30 at the Valspar last week is his best finish in the month leading into this event compared to his previous two starts here. He did have a T10 in Mexico five starts before finishing 5th here last year, which is another driver-heavy, long iron intensive venue.

Cody Williams: Sudarshan Yellamaraju +9400 (DraftKings)

Who cares if Sudarshan Yellamaraju has seemingly come out of nowhere. What I see is a guy who finished T5 at The Players and who has played well all season. I also see a young player who is Top 20 in SG: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, Bogey Avoidance, and Birdie or Better Gained Percentage over the last 24 rounds. He’s also solid in terms of Driving Distance, a plus putter on Bermuda, and Top 25 in scrambling. In a field that feels quite wide-open, he’s playing with as good a chance as anyone this week at nearly 100/1.

Brian Giuffra: Adam Scott +4500* (FanDuel)

Ok, I know I’m starting to push the boundaries of what a longshot is, but I’m also trying to give you winners and people I bet on. Plus, +4500 odds is a 2.2% implied probability, and Scott hasn’t won in six years. It’s a longshot dammit! Scott is still pounding the ball off the tee at 46 years old, ranking 26th on Tour in driving distance. He’s ninth in SG: Approach and fifth in proximity to the hole. He’s won here before. He was 4th at the Genesis and T11 at API. His game is in form. This course is perfect for him. Let’s see if the old man can bag one more win!

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan: Chris Gotterup +3900 (DraftKings)

Chris Gotterup leads the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 67.00, which is 0.29 strokes better than any other player. Now, he should be able to take advantage of a relatively weak field. His length off the tee is also going to give him an advantage over most golfers at Memorial Park.

Brian Kirschner: Jesper Svensson +7500 (FanDuel)

Taking a stab at a longer odds golfer this week in the FRL market. Svensson is coming off a T5 finish in Puerto Rico so he has shown upside recently. He also gained largely OTT and ARG at the Valspar despite a MC. He finished T27 here last year and gained over 4 strokes putting. I trust the driver and putter to pop for a FRL here in Houston.

Brad Thomas: Aldrich Potgieter +6600

Every part of me wants to be on Aldrich Potgieter to win this golf tournament. The young South African is an absolute weapon off the tee, ranking inside the top five in driving distance, and he’s started to show more comfort in his game after slimming down.

We’ve seen flashes of really solid golf from him, and the approach numbers are more than good enough to get the job done. There’s no issue backing him outright, but the way he profiles, it feels like his best path to winning is by getting out in front early. That’s why the First Round Leader market stands out. If Potgieter is going to win, it likely starts with a fast Thursday or one of the low rounds of the week. At that price, I’m just hoping that insanely low round is the first round.

Byron Lindeque: Ryan Fox +7000 (BetRivers)

If you are feeling Foxy at 70-1, Ryan has averaged +1.4 strokes per round on Thursdays and has not finished worse than T24 in his four starts this year, which has him ranking third in my FRL model. He is unofficially the strongest man on the PGA Tour as he can bench press the most of all PGA Tour players (who were asked). As a result, he finds himself in the top 20 in driving distance this week. I have also bet him to win the tournament as he ranks 2nd in my course fit Micro Model.

Cody Williams: Jake Knapp +4200 (DraftKings)

I have a strict “don’t trust Jake Knapp” policy right now until I see that he’s fully healthy after WD’ing at the API and then a missed cut at The Players. But his approach play and off-the-tee prowess are well-noted and Memorial Park is the perfect spot for him to turn into a microwave where he can’t stop making birdies. Again, I’m hesitant to look at him to win outright, but I’ll take a first-round leader shot.

Brian Giuffra: Min Woo Lee +3300* (DraftKings)

The defending Houston Open champion is off to a strong start this season, with a T2, T6 and T12 in six starts so far. He’s fifth on Tour in first-round scoring average (68.33) and opened with a 66 here last year (one off the FRL). He followed that up with rounds of 64 and 63. He knows how to go low here.

Best Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Gary Woodland Top 40 +115 (DraftKings)

Gary Woodland had his best performance in almost a year last week, posting a T14 finish at the Valspar Championship. He now returns to an event that he finished T9 at in 2022 and a runner-up finish here last year. If his game is truly trending in the right direction, there’s a chance it all comes together this week. All we need is for him to finish in the top 40 to cash in a bet at plus-money.

Brian Kirschner: Wyndham Clark Top 30 +108 (DraftKings)

I love the way Wyndham is hitting his irons this season. He also loves this course with a top 10 finish here last year. I am hoping a new caddy on the bag will help him to a decent finish in Houston.

Brad Thomas: Jake Knapp Top 20 incl. ties +112 (DraftKings)

It’s hard to win on the PGA Tour, even for a player who’s been as good as Jake Knapp. Outside of those two slip-ups, he’s done nothing but contend and consistently find himself inside the top 20. That’s what makes the Top 20 number so appealing. Even with Scottie Scheffler coming out of the field, that price barely moved. You’re still getting a golfer who has shown a high floor and the ability to stay in the mix week after week. If Knapp is anywhere near his early-season form, this sets up perfectly. He doesn’t need to win to cash. He just needs to do what he’s been doing, which is putting himself in contention and hanging around the top of the board.

Byron Lindeque: Rickie Fowler Top 20 incl. ties +125 (FanDuel)

Rickie ranks #1 in my course fit Micro Model and has finished inside the top 20 in four of his six starts this year. A T28 at the Genesis Invitational (a signature event) and a T42 at the Players (a major or something like that) were his only two misses in this market this year. The field is significantly weaker than both of those two events. With Fowler ranking as the fifth-best ball striker in this field, his floor remains exceedingly high!

Cody Williams: Chris Gotterup Top 10 incl. ties +175 (BetMGM)

We’re talking about a course that requires ball-striking, distance, birdie making and bogey avoidance to large degrees. Why would we not think that Gotterup has a chance to make some noise again this week? This feels like an ideal setup for him. While I think his win equity has cooled a bit since his early-season heater, a Top 10 finish is a much safer play on him.

Brian Giuffra: Adam Scott Top 20 incl. ties +160 (BetMGM)*

I got back on track last week in this market by betting a guy I thought could win to place Top 20 (Jacob Bridgeman). That’s what led to a winning record last year too. Let’s stick with it.

Winning Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan: -18
Brian Kirschner: -16
Brad Thomas: -15
Byron Lindeque: -20
Cody Williams: -17
Brian Giuffra: -17

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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