Texas vs. Purdue Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

The Texas Longhorns have parlayed a First Four win against NC State into a Sweet 16 berth, after upsetting both BYU and Gonzaga in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

They have their toughest challenge to date on Thursday when they take on the No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers in the first game of the Sweet 16.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for Thursday's SEC vs. Big Ten showdown.

Texas vs. Purdue Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Spread

Texas +7 (-110)
Purdue -7 (-110)

Moneyline

Texas +270
Purdue -345

Total

OVER 148.5 (-110)
UNDER 148.5 (-110)

Texas vs. Purdue How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 26
Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
Venue: SAP Center at San Jose
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Texas Record: 21-14
Purdue Record: 29-8

Texas vs. Purdue Betting Trends

The UNDER is 4-1 in Texas' last five games
Texas has gone 4-1 straight up in its last five games as an underdog
Purdue is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
The OVER is 9-3 in Purdue's last 12 games

Texas vs. Purdue Best Prop Bet

Dailyn Swain 6+ Assists via FanDuel

Dailyn Swain is averaging 3.5 assists per game this season, but he's improved in that area throughout the tournament. He has recorded six assists in two straight games, and has now had 4+ assists in six straight games dating back through to the regular season. Now, he and the Longhorns get to face a Texas team that ranks 275th in opponent assists per game, giving up 14.8 per game.

Texas vs. Purdue Prediction and Pick

These two teams are a lot more similar than their seeding would make you think. Both teams rank inside the top 75 in the country in effective field goal percentage, while also ranking outside the top 150 in defensive efficiency. To be fair, Purdue is a better version of Texas, ranking ahead of the Longhorns in both those categories.

With that being said, the gap between the metrics isn't wide enough to justify the 7-point spread. I've been low on this Purdue team for a while, based on how low the Boilermakers rank in defensive numbers. It's also important to note that Texas is playing its best basketball it has played all season, which includes keeping its opponents to shooting just 42.3% over its last three games.

I'm going to take the points with the Longhorns in hopes this game comes down to the wire.

Pick: Texas +7 (-110) via Caesars

Use our exclusive Caesars Sportsbook promo code SIBONUSDYW to earn up to a 10 100% Boosts when you sign up and make your first wager with the online sportsbook.

Follow Iain on X and Instagram

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

You can check out all of Iain's bets here!