Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Tuesday, Jan. 6

Iain MacMillan | Jan 6, 2026

Texas and Tennessee are set to face off in an SEC duel on Tuesday night. / Nelson Chenault-Imagn Images

The Texas Longhorns and Tennessee Volunteers are both looking to bounce back from losing their respective first games in SEC play this season. Texas lost in overtime against Mississippi State, and Tennessee lost by 11 to Arkansas.

One of the two teams will get its first SEC win tonight. Let's take a look at the odds and my best for the game.

Texas vs. Tennessee Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• Texas +10.5 (-110)
• Tennessee -10.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Texas +470
• Tennessee -670

Total

• OVER 154.5 (-110)
• UNDER 154.5 (-110)

Texas vs. Tennessee How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, January 6
• Game Time: 9:00 pm ET
• Venue: Food City Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
• Texas Record: 9-5 (0-1 in SEC)
• Tennessee Record: 10-4 (0-1 in SEC)

Texas vs. Tennessee Betting Trends

• The OVER is 7-2 in Texas' last nine games
• The OVER is 5-1 in Texas' last six road games
• Tennessee is 4-1 straight up in its last five games vs. Texas
• Tennessee is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games
• Tennessee has won 10 straight home games
• Tennessee is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games as the favorite

Texas vs. Tennessee Key Player to Watch

• Dailyn Swain, G - Texas Longhorns

Dailyn Swain is leading Texas in points (16.4), rebounds (7.4), assists (3.4), and steals (1.7) per game. You'd be hard-pressed to find another team in college basketball where the same player leads the team in all four of those statistics. Tennessee will have to shut him down to win and cover in this game.

Texas vs. Tennessee Prediction and Pick

I'm surprised to see Tennessee as big a favorite as it is, especially considering the Volunteers are 3-8 ATS the last 11 times they were set as favorites. A lot of the stats between these two teams are comparable. They rank 61st/72nd in effective field goal percentage and 16th/18th in defensive efficiency.

The key to competing with Tennessee is defending the interior. Tennessee has one of the highest two-point shot rates in the country, rarely taking shots from three-point land. Thankfully for the Longhorns, they've defended the interior well this season, keeping teams to shooting just 46.5% from down low.

Give me the points with Texas tonight.

Pick: Texas +10.5 (-110) via FanDuel

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