The Players Championship Picks, Props Predictions: Betting Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele and Ludvig Aberg

After a washout at the API, the SI Golf betting panel is hoping to regain the mojo of the previous two weeks when we cashed two longshot bets. No better place to do it than the Players Championship.

Debate whether it’s the fifth major or not (some are calling it the fourth major), TPC Sawgrass produces elite champions and Sunday drama. The last seven winners are major champions. Three of those winners, who have combined to win five Players Championships, are multi-time major winners (Rory, Scottie, Justin Thomas). You have to go back to 2017 (Si Woo Kim) to find a player who won here but hasn’t claimed a REAL major.

Also, all but one of those winners had odds of +3000 or shorter when they won. Important to note when handicapping.

The SI Golf betting panel features SI Betting insider Iain MacMillan, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, Betting analyst Brad Thomas, The Model Maniac Byron Lindeque, FanSided content director Cody Williams and me, Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each Wednesday, we post our betting picks for outright and longshot winners, first-round leader, our favorite prop bet and a final score prediction.

Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy are the betting favorites this week, but both have question marks. Scheffler’s irons have suddenly gone wayward (he does have a win this year) and Rory WD’d last week with a back injury he’s still working through. No one on the panel is on them.

While the cream tends to rise at TPC Sawgrass, this is one of the harder events to handicap. The course can be quirky and there are so many water holes. One mistake can derail a player’s entire tournament – and open up an opportunity for someone else.

Let’s get into our picks with full breakdowns on each one below the graphic.

Players Championship betting picks | Sports Illustrated

Outright

Iain MacMillan: Si Woo Kim +2700 (Bet365)

Let’s bet on a former winner getting his second career Players Championship victory this week. Si Woo Kim won this event in 2017 and has posted two top-10 finishes at TPC Sawgrass since then. Now, he’s quietly have one of the best seasons of his career, already posting five finishes of T13 or better this year. He ranks fourth in driving accuracy and second in strokes-gained approach, which makes him a perfect fit for this course.

Brian Kirschner: Ludvig Åberg +2700 (DraftKings)

The golf world has high hopes for Ludvig and I think that The Players is the perfect spot for him to truly cement himself as one of the best golfers in the world. After a slow start to the year, Ludvig has shown up the past two events. He finished T20 at Riviera, gaining in all major categories, and did the same thing at Bay Hill. He gained nearly 8 strokes on approach and had a great mix of distance and accuracy off the tee. Ludvig is going to be dangerous this week at Sawgrass.

Brad Thomas: Collin Morikawa +2050 (DraftKings)

Um, has anyone noticed how dang good Morikawa has actually been playing this season? Yes, he already has a win, and it wasn’t a fluke. It’s been a sustained improvement for much of the season. He’s been a massive gainer on approach in every event and has gained strokes putting in back-to-back tournaments. He’s played well in Ponte Vedra before, but the putter has never quite cooperated enough for him to truly contend. I think that changes this year.

Byron Lindeque: Collin Morikawa +2050 (DraftKings)

I don’t bet Collin Morikawa. But this week, I am putting aside all not-so-positive preconceived perpetuations of one of the most in-form golfers teeing it up this week. He switched to a new putter at Pebble and won that tournament. His last three starts include the win, along with a seventh and fifth-place finish in two more signature events. He has not lost strokes with the putter over that stretch. He has lost strokes putting in every PLAYERS and now gets the chance to change that with the new putter.

Cody Williams: Ludvig Åberg +2700 (DraftKings)

Things are trending in a distinctly right way for Ludvig coming into The Players. He’s improved his SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach in each of his last three starts, including gaining nearly 10 strokes tee-to-green last week en route to a T3 finish at the API. Moreover, he’s a positive putter on Bermuda and has a solo eighth in two starts at TPC Sawgrass as well. Åberg finally looks back to 100% health, and with the field at The Players looking quite wide-open, the trends suggest he might be bound for the winner’s circle once again.

Brian Giuffra: Xander Schauffele +2900 (DraftKings)

With Scottie struggling (by his standards) and Rory dealing with a balky back, Xander has a prime opportunity to add another feather in his already-impressive resume. And his game is rounding into form at the perfect time. First, I think X is going to win a few times this year. That’s foreshadowing of future bets, but it seems he’s back to his 2024 self. He was T7 at Genesis and has gained in approach and OTT in his last three events. We also saw his putting spike at Pebble. He has two T2s at the Players in the past, along with a T19 and three missed cuts. So he’s either going to win or go home early. There is no in between. I’m betting he spikes across this week.

Longshot

Iain MacMillan Aaron Rai +10000 (Bet365)

Aaron Rai has been solid this season, but he has yet to put a full tournament together. He could very well do that this week as he tees it up at his home course. Few people have played TPC Sawgrass as much as Rai has the last couple of years, and he has posted top 20 finishes in two of his three starts here. He’s also a great course fit, ranking 15th in driving accuracy and 10th in greens in regulation.

Brian Kirschner: Joel Dahmen +20000 (DraftKings)

Joel has popped a few times this year and I think 200/1 is honestly a really good number. Dahmen already has two top 10s this season, with a T9 at the Cognizant and a T7 at the Farmers. Joel is very much known for his accuracy off the tee and also his great iron play. In his MC last week, he struck the ball really well and couldn’t buy a putt. He also holds two top 12 finishes here, so it is a place that he likes.

Brad Thomas: Nico Echavarria +15000 (HardRock)

I don’t think many golfers putt better on Bermuda than Nico Echavarria. When he gets hot with the flat stick, he’s extremely dangerous. He’s already picked up a win during the Florida Swing and had the best opening six-hole stretch to start the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The odds on him are simply too long, even if he fades a bit as he did on the back nine of the first round last week.

Byron Lindeque: Sepp Straka +5400 (DraftKings)

The Septic tank flushed away a Top 10 at last week’s API after beginning the final round T3. I am going to focus on where he was after R3 and ignore the tanks round 4 overflow. Straka now has three top 20 finishes in his last four starts and grades out as the eighth-best course fit in my micro model, courtesy of a top iron game. Sepp has been hot and cold with the putter this year, but the ball striking has been exSepptional with the 7th best ball striking numbers in 2026.

Cody Williams: Christiaan Bezuidenhout +10000 (FanDuel)

Bezuidenhout’s finishes don’t fully encapsulate his steady play this season and, more importantly, how well he should fit TPC Sawgrass, a place he logged back-to-back T13 finishes in 2023 and 2024. He’s Top 20 in the field in SG: Approach and Fairways Gained, while also ranking first in SG: Around-the-Green and eighth in putting on Bermuda over the last 24 rounds. He’s also coming off a T8 in Puerto Rico last week. This isn’t to say he’s a lock to win The Players by any stretch, but that profile looks a lot better than 100/1 would suggest.

Brian Giuffra: Cameron Young +5000 (FanDuel)

I bet Young last week when I saw this number, so stop your whining about not finding it anymore. He’s +3300 at FD now and those are the best odds I found when writing it. That’s the price I bet last week. Deal with it. Young was T3 at the API last week and T7 at Genesis. He’s gained 10 strokes on approach in his last eight rounds and just gained over 8 strokes OTT at the API. He’s been terrible at The Players, with a T51 his best finish in four starts. But this is a variable course and recent form matters more than many other stats. I don’t see a true longshot winning so this was my pick at longish odds.

First-Round Leader

Iain MacMillan Min Woo Lee +5500 (DraftKings)

Min Woo Lee enters this week tied for fourth on the PGA Tour in Round 1 scoring average at 67.6, and he’s already had a great start to the season, finishing as the runner-up at Pebble Beach and posting a T6 finish at last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. His accurate driving and elite short game will give him a leg-up on the rest of the competition this week.

Brian Kirschner: Russell Henley +4100 (DraftKings)

Three great mysteries of this world: Who was Jack the Ripper, Who Built the Pyramids and why doesn’t Russ Henley play well at TPC Sawgrass? On paper, this is literally a perfect course for Russ and he has only had a best finish of T13. I am throwing that all out the window this year and hoping he can figure this place out. Russ is an excellent starter and I think that if he makes a few putts, he can easily be the first-round leader this week.

Brad Thomas: Min Woo Lee +5500 (DraftKings)

Min Woo Lee has been a stroke or two off the first-round lead here in two of his last three starts. He’s in the top five in the field in Birdie or Better percentage in the first round as well. His ball-striking numbers, mixed with his success around TPC, point to the potential for an early spike round from the Chef.

Byron Lindeque: Collin Morikawa +3500 (DraftKings)

Despite Russell Henley stealing Morikawa’s mojo this time last year, he has still averaged +1.8 strokes in round one since the start of 2025, which is easily his best round split. The exciting part about that Thursday thirst trap is technically gaining even more strokes on the field because in 2026 he is averaging +2.2 strokes per round this year. This is an ideal course fit for a golfer that is built to win a PLAYERS Championship before he retires. A FRL bank will get this week off to a hot start and give him a crack at winning this thing.

Cody Williams: Hideki Matsuyama +5600 (DraftKings)

Hideki’s record at The Players has been as good as almost anyone’s, especially those without a win. Not only has he avoided the bulk of the volatility this event normally poses with only three missed cuts since 2014, but he’s also logged seven Top 25 finishes and four Top 10s over that span as well. He comes in still striking the ball well, and seemingly more than good enough to put a good round together. I don’t think a hot start is out of the question.

Brian Giuffra: Maverick McNealy +5200 (DraftKings)

I’m on record saying I think Mav is in for a big year. I don’t think he wins this week, but he can get off to a hot start. He’s second on tour in Round 1 scoring average (67.33) and was T9 here in 2024, so he has some history of success, though he missed the cut last year. He’s gained over 10 strokes OTT in his last eight rounds and showed some improvement on approach at API. I’ll give it a whirl.

Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Hole in One on 17: Yes +200 (DraftKings)

There have been plenty of holes-in-one on the famous 17th island green lately. There have been five of them dating back to 2021, including at least one recorded in three of the past four years. I have a hunch they’ve been setting that hole up to be favorable for aces, so I’m going to jump at the chance to bet on one being recorded on the island green at 2-1.

Brian Kirschner: Jordan Speith -120 over Justin Rose (FanDuel)

Jordan has really been playing better than a lot of people have given him credit for. Although his course history is not anything special here, I think he is a different player than he has been in the past. Justin Rose has only made one cut since his win at the Farmers and does not have a great history at this event. I think Jordan wins this one.

Brad Thomas: Harrish English Top 30 +118 (DraftKings

Whenever I think of difficult courses that require accuracy off the tee, one of the first golfers I check to see if they fit the mold is Harris English. If his win at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines is any indication, English has the game for demanding driver courses. It also helps that English enters this event with back-to-back top-30 finishes at TPC and has finished inside the top 30 in each of his last seven events. Granted, some of those came in limited fields, but he’s still been playing well enough to target him this week.

Byron Lindeque: Shane Lowry Top 20 +200 incl. ties (DraftKings)

Only seven other golfers finish inside the top 20 more often than Shane Lowry, who does so 53% of his starts over the last 12 months. Three of his four PGA starts this year have been T24, T8 and T2. Although course history here is super volatile, Lowry has been steadily finishing in the top 20 at TPC Sawgrass with four Top 20s in his last 5 PLAYERS. +200 seems like a might fair price for the Irishman, who finishes inside the top 20 more often than not.

Cody Williams: Matt Fitzpatrick Top 10 incl. ties +350 (BetMGM)

After a poor ball-striking week at the API, I’m not seeing as much love for Fitzpatrick as has been the case in recent weeks. That’s fine by me. He has two Top 10s in his last five starts at The Players (and I don’t care about the three missed cuts that accompany that), and now enters this week ranking 10th in SG: Approach, fifth in Fairways Gained and fifth in SG: Putting on Bermuda over his last 24 rounds. That’s an ideal fit for another strong showing this week and good odds to simply get himself inside the Top 10.

Brian Giuffra: Si Woo Kim Top 20 +112 (DraftKings)

Iain already went over a lot of what I’d say about Kim. I considered him outright. In the end, I don’t see him winning another Players. I do think he’ll compete. He had three Top 10s to start the year and was T13 last week. I personally got aggressive and also bet him Top 10 at +250 odds, but for this panel, I’ll stick with the safer bet at Top 20.

Winning Score Prediction

Iain MacMillan -16
Brian Kirschner: -15
Brad Thomas: -14
Byron Lindeque: -11
Cody Williams: -15
Brian Giuffra: -14

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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