Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, Feb. 1

A potential Western Conference Finals preview closes out a 10-game slate in the NBA on Sunday, as the Denver Nuggets host the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Nikola Jokic (probable) is back from knee injury and dropped 31 points in limited minutes on Friday, but Denver is still a sizable home underdog on Sunday night.

This game features the two leading MVP candidates in Jokic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, but both teams are going to be short-handed on Sunday. OKC is down Alex Caruso, Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams while the Nuggets won’t have Christian Braun (doubtful), Cameron Johnson or Aaron Gordon.

Despite that, this should be an absolute barnburner in the first of four regular-season meetings between these Finals contenders.

Let’s take a look at the odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for Sunday night’s showdown.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder -7.5 (-118)
Nuggets +7.5 (-102)

Moneyline

Thunder: -290
Nuggets: +235

Total

222.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Nuggets How to Watch

Date: Sunday, Feb. 1
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Ball Arena
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Thunder record: 38-11
Nuggets record: 33-16

Thunder vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Ajay Mitchell – out
Alex Caruso – out
Thomas Sorber – out
Nikola Topic – out
Jalen Williams – out

Nuggets Injury Report

Tamar Bates – out
Christian Braun – doubtful
Cameron Johnson – out
Aaron Gordon – out
Curtis Jones – out
Nikola Jokic – probable
Jamal Murray – probable

Thunder vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bet

Nikola Jokic OVER 24.5 Points (-124)

Jokic is likely going to be on a minutes limit once again on Sunday, but he only needed 11 shots (and 17 free throws) to score 31 points in about half the game on Friday against a surging Clippers team.

Now, he takes on an OKC squad that has looked human as of late, losing four of its last 10 games. Denver is just five games back of OKC in the Western Conference standings, and a win on Sunday would make things interesting with multiple more meetings between these teams in the regular season.

Jokic's rebounds and assists props are a little trickier when he's on a minutes limit, especially since they are set at 12.5 and 8.5 respectively on Sunday. Instead, I thin he's worth targeting as a scorer, especially since he's been incredibly efficient during the 2025-26 season.

Through 33 games, Jokic has 25 or more points in 23 of them, giving him a really solid floor on Sunday.

Thunder vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why the Nuggets are a great underdog bet:

Nikola Jokic is back in the lineup for the Denver Nuggets, and he promptly put up 31 points, 12 rebounds and five assists against the Los Angeles Clippers on Friday night in a 13-point win.

Jokic only played 24:32 in that matchup, but he still made a profound impact on the game, leading Denver to an impressive plus-11 in his minutes. Now, the Nuggets are home dogs against an OKC team that has looked beatable as of late, going just 6-4 in its last 10 games.

Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell remain out for the Thunder, which may give this short-handed Denver team (down Aaron Gordon, Cameron Johnson and Christian Braun) a shot to hang around.

Even with Jokic on a minutes limit, having the star big man out there is a huge boost for Denver, and it shouldn't be a two-possession underdog at home as long as he’s playing.

As great as the Thunder have been this season, they are just 13-8 against teams that are .500 or better (25-3 against everyone else) and are 11-12 against the spread when favored on the road.

I think Denver is live to win this game, and I’ll gladly take the 6.5 points on Sunday night.

Pick: Nuggets +7.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $300 in bonus bets instantly.