Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 3

A critical Game 3 is set for Friday night, as the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are knotted at one game apiece after two wild matchups in OKC.

San Antonio took Game 1 in double overtime, riding a 41-point, 24-rebound showing from Victor Wembanyama to down the defending champs. However, OKC bounced back in a big way in Game 2, as two-time MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 30 points to lead the Thunder to a win.

When it comes to betting on Game 3, I have props for both of those players coming up later in this column.

San Antonio is set as a small favorite in Game 3 on Friday, but injuries have somewhat changed the complexion of this series.

De’Aaron Fox (ankle) has yet to play in a game in this matchup and is listed as questionable on Friday night. In addition to Fox, rookie guard Dylan Harper (right adductor soreness) exited Game 2 and did not return. He’s questionable for Game 3.

On the Thunder side, star forward Jalen Williams aggravated the hamstring injury that cost him six games already this postseason. Williams played less than eight minutes before exiting in Game 2, and he’s questionable for Friday’s contest.

These teams played two hard-fought games in Oklahoma City, and a ton of miles (and minutes) have been put on the top players on both sides. Does that impact how each team approaches Game 3?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for Thunder vs. Spurs on Friday night.

Thunder vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder +1.5 (-110)
Spurs -1.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Thunder: +105
Spurs: -125

Total

217.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Friday, May 22
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: Tied 1-1

Thunder vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber -- out
Jalen Williams -- questionable

Spurs Injury Report

De'Aaron Fox -- questionable
Dylan Harper -- questionable

Thunder vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ Assists (-152)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why SGA is a great prop target in Game 3:

SGA is known for being arguably the best scorer in the NBA, but his passing has been a difference-maker for the Thunder in the 2026 postseason.

The two-time league MVP is averaging 7.8 assists per game in the playoffs, way up from his average in the regular season (6.6). He’s picked up at least eight dimes in seven of his 10 playoff games, recording 12 assists in Game 1 of this series and nine in Game 2.

With Williams aggravating his hamstring injury, SGA is going to see even more defensive pressure in Game 3. He’s handled it well so far in this series as a playmaker, turning the ball over just five times.

In the playoffs overall, SGA is averaging 14.6 potential assists per game, giving him a really solid floor when it comes to this prop. If the Spurs are going to continue to sell out to keep him from scoring, I trust the Thunder role players to knock down shots around.

Shai has hit this prop in four consecutive games against a very similar scheme (the Los Angeles Lakers double-teamed and trapped him quite a bit in the second round), and he’s remained a willing passer throughout the postseason.

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Victor Wembanyama 14+ Rebounds (-152)

Through two games in this series, Wembanyama has 41 rebounds, grabbing 24 in Game 1 (a double-overtime matchup) and 17 in Game 2.

Even with Isaiah Hartenstein spending a lot of time on him in Game 2, Wemby still dominated the boards, recording his third 17-rebound game in his last four games. Overall, the Spurs star has 14 or more rebounds (which he’ll need to hit this prop) in seven of his last nine playoff games.

The Spurs have allowed Wemby to play more minutes in the postseason, and he’s averaging 19.0 rebound chances per game. On top of that, this has been a favorable matchup for him on the glass since the Thunder ranked in the bottom 10 in the league in rebound percentage during the regular season.

I’ll keep trusting the All-NBA center to hit his rebound prop until OKC proves that it can keep him off the glass in this series.

Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

Are the defending champs undervalued in Game 3?

OKC has only been an underdog four other times this season, and it has shown time and time again that it can win even with Williams banged up. The Thunder went 39-10 without Williams in the regular season and they’re 6-0 in the playoffs without him, including two more wins in games that he left early.

The Spurs turned in all-time showing in the double-overtime win in Game 1, but they have turned the ball over a ton in the first two games of this series. That has been the spark for the Thunder offense over the last few years, as they constantly capitalize on live-ball turnovers and get easy points.

OKC is the deeper team and built to withstand injuries, but the Spurs’ guard rotation looked awfully short in Game 2. Stephon Castle is being asked to do too much with the ball in his hands, and it’s led to 20 turnovers over the first two games of this series.

I don’t think the Spurs can withstand another effort like that, and OKC may have found something with Hartenstein being ultra-physical with Wemby on Wednesday night.

I lean with the Thunder to win this game, but I’ll take the 1.5-point cushion in case we get another down-to-the-wire finish on Friday night.

Pick: Thunder +1.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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