Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction, Odds and Best Prop Bets for NBA Playoffs Game 6

Will we see a Game 7 in the Western Conference Finals?

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs are going to do everything in their power to get there, and they’re favored at home in Game 6 against the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the defending champs picked up a 13-point win at home in Game 5, swinging this series in their favor. Historically, the numbers are on the Thunder’s side, as teams that won Game 5 in a best-of-seven series that was tied 2-2 went on to win the series 82% of the time (198-44 series record).

Still, OKC was blown out in Game 4 in San Antonio, and it remains short-handed in Game 6 with Ajay Mitchell (calf) listed as out and Jalen Williams (hamstring) questionable.

The Spurs have struggled with turnovers in this series, but they can really blame their shot-making in Game 5. Wemby was just 4-for-15 from the field and the Spurs shot under 30 percent from 3-point range as a team.

OKC has overtaken the Spurs for the No. 2 spot in net rating this postseason (the New York Knicks remain in first), but can San Antonio take that back in Game 6?

If the Spurs win, they’ll set up a winner-take-all Game 7 on Saturday with a trip to the NBA Finals on the line.

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop for each team and my prediction for Game 6 of the Western Conference Finals on Thursday, May 28.

Thunder vs. Spurs Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Thunder +3.5 (-110)
Spurs -3.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Thunder: +136
Spurs: -162

Total

218.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Thunder vs. Spurs How to Watch

Date: Thursday, May 28
Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Frost Bank Center
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock
Series: OKC leads 3-2

Thunder vs. Spurs Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

Thomas Sorber -- out
Ajay Mitchell -- out
Jalen Williams -- questionable

Spurs Injury Report

None to report

Thunder vs. Spurs Best NBA Prop Bets

Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

Isaiah Hartenstein OVER 18.5 Points, Rebounds and Assists (-123)

After he was seemingly benched in Game 1, playing just over 12 minutes, Hartenstein has become the primary defender on Victor Wembanyama and a steady presence for the Thunder both on offense and on the glass.

Hartenstein has recorded 26, 17, 22 and 31 points, rebounds and assists over the last four games of this series, playing his best game in Game 5 with 12 points, 15 rebounds and four assists.

The Spurs have been willing to give Hartenstein his patented floater in the middle of the lane, and the Thunder center has seen his minutes go from 12:10 in Game 1 to 24.3 per game over the last four games.

I think this line is too low for the Thunder big man, who already has a pair of double-doubles in this series. Plus, Hartenstein is underrated as a passer, averaging 2.8 assists per game in the playoffs.

Spurs Best NBA Prop Bet

Victor Wembanyama UNDER 13.5 Rebounds (-136)

Victor Wembanyama opened this series as a monster on the glass, grabbing 24 rebounds in a double-overtime win in Game 1 and 17 boards in a close loss in Game 2.

Since then, with the Thunder spending more and more time with Hartenstein on Wemby, the Spurs star hasn’t made nearly the same impact on the boards.

Wembanyama has four, eight and six rebounds in his last three games, and he’s now cleared 13.5 boards in less than half (seven) of his 15 appearances this postseason. On top of that, Wemby is averaging 11.1 rebounds per game in the postseason on 18.1 rebound chances.

That number has fallen in this series, and asking the All-NBA center to grab 14 boards in Game 6 – when he’s had 18 total over the last three games – is a little lofty.

I’ll take the UNDER here, as Wemby’s best rebounding showings came against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who were one of the worst shooting teams (13th in effective field goal percentage) in the playoffs.

OKC is No. 2 in eFG% entering Game 6.

Thunder vs. Spurs Prediction and Pick

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why I am taking the points with the defending champs in Game 6:

The Thunder were 1.5-point underdogs in Game 4 and ended up losing by 21 points, but they responded with a strong Game 5 performance, shooting 43.8 percent from 3 and scoring 127 points.

I think that the movement in the spread for this game is a little crazy, as oddsmakers shifted things by two points after the Spurs played arguably their worst offensive game in this series.

San Antonio is playing with an increased sense of urgency since the season could end on Thursday night, but I still think the Thunder are worth a bet with this spread set just outside one possession.

OKC seemed to figure some things out offensively with Jared McCain in the starting lineup, and the Thunder have now won three games by nine or more points with one of their two losses coming in double overtime.

San Antonio’s offense has some major issues – especially when it comes to 3-point shooting in turnovers – as the Spurs are now 11th out of 16th playoff teams in turnover percentage this postseason.

Gilgeous-Alexander has found ways to beat the Spurs’ attack in every game, and an improved shooting performance in Game 5 took the Thunder from 82 points and a 21-point loss in Game 4 to 127 points and a 13-point win in Game 5.

I don’t think there’s a massive gap between these teams, but I do believe the experience of the Thunder has shone through in the big moments in this series. OKC may not win Game 6, but I’ll gladly take the 3.5-point cushion in what feels like a toss-up game.

Pick: Thunder +3.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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