Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction, Odds, Best NBA Prop Bets for Western Conference Finals Game 4

The Thunder are slight favorites in Game 4.

Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a solid prop target in Game 4. / Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images

Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals could be a huge swing game, as the Minnesota Timberwolves aim to build on their 42-point win over the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3.

OKC dominated the first two games of this series, but the Timberwolves turned things around at home, shooting over 57 percent from the field while seven different players finished in double figures. 

While OKC is still favored to win the title (and the series), the Timberwolves could really flip things by evening the series in Game 4. Oddsmakers have set another close spread, as the Thunder are just 3.5-point favorites on Monday.

It’s worth noting that OKC was favored by 2.5 points on Saturday before it was blown out.

Anthony Edwards has turned things around after a down Game 1, scoring 30 or more points in each of his last two games. Can he turn things one – like he did in Game 3 – to keep Minnesota in the mix for an NBA Finals trip?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction for Game 4. 

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Thunder -3.5 (-108)
• Timberwolves +3.5 (-112)

Moneyline

• Thunder: -155
• Timberwolves: +130

Total

• 218.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Thunder vs. Timberwolves How to Watch

• Date: Monday, May 26
• Time: 8:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: Target Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Series: OKC leads 2-1

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Injury Reports

Thunder Injury Report

• Nikola Topic – out

Timberwolves Injury Report

• None to report

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bets

Oklahoma City Thunder Best NBA Prop Bet

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 6.5 Assists (-140)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is worth a bet as a passer in Game 4:

All postseason long, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s passing has been a bit undervalued – especially when it comes to the prop market.

While SGA is averaging 6.6 assists per game in the playoffs, which makes his 6.5 prop seem extremely reasonable, his potential assists suggest he should be averaging way more.

Through 14 playoff games, Shai is averaging 15.3 potential assists per game, and he’s picked up nine, eight and six dimes in his three games in this series. It’s worth noting that SGA had six dimes in Game 3 despite playing just 27:38 since the Thunder were getting blown out.

If Game 4 is more competitive, I’d expect SGA to clear this number, especially since he’s setting his teammates up at a higher rate than he did in the regular season. During the regular season, SGA averaged 6.4 assists per game on 12.1 potential assists. 

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

• Julius Randle OVER 18.5 Points (-110)

Both of the props I love in this game are from today’s Peter’s Points, as I also shared why Julius Randle is undervalued after a bounce-back Game 3: 

Randle struggled in Game 2 of this series, shooting 2-for-11 from the field and finishing with six points, but he bounced back in a big way on Saturday.

Randle finished with 24 points on 9-of-15 shooting (2-for-5 from 3), and he took advantage of the size differential between himself and various OKC wing defenders – including Jalen Williams – that were thrown at him.

This postseason, Randle has cleared 18.5 points in 10 of his 13 games, averaging 22.8 points per game. In addition to that, the three-time All-Star has been really efficient, shooting 51.0 percent from the field and 37.7 percent from 3.

This line seems to be an overreaction to Randle’s Game 2, and he’s scored 28 and 24 points in his other two games in this series. I love him at this number in Game 4. 

Thunder vs. Timberwolves Prediction and Pick

So far in this series, the Thunder and Wolves have combined for 202, 221 and 244 points, clearing the total set for Game 4 on two occasions. 

While the Thunder are the No. 1 defense in the postseason and Minnesota is No. 3, these are also the No. 4 and No. 5 offenses in the NBA playoffs. On top of that, OKC is second amongst all playoff teams in pace, meaning there are going to be a ton of extra possessions.

Even though the Thunder were elite against the spread in the regular season, they are just 6-8 ATS in the playoffs, so I’d much rather look to the total in Game 4.

Minnesota’s offense took a major step forward, and while I don’t expect the Wolves to shoot over 57 percent again, their role players started to play better after a dreadful two games in OKC.

Since Game 4 of the first round, OKC has hit the OVER in seven of 11 games. Meanwhile, the Wolves have hit the OVER in five of eight games since the start of the second round. 

I think we could be in line for another high-scoring game in Game 4, especially if the Wolves get solid shooting performances from Edwards and Randle like they did on Saturday night. 

Pick: OVER 218.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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