Tigers vs. Twins Prediction: Expect Plenty of Runs in this AL Central Battle

After a 2-0 start to the 2026 season, the Detroit Tigers have dropped eight of their last 10 games and are in danger of getting swept by the Minnesota Twins on Thursday afternoon.

Detroit is set as a road favorite against the 6-6 Twins, but Minnesota has won three straight games in this matchup by two or more runs to get back to .500.

Jack Flaherty (7.56 ERA) is on the mound for the Tigers after leading the team to a win over St. Louis in his last start. The veteran right-hander has walked eight batters across two starts this season while failing to get through five innings in each outing.

Meanwhile, Minnesota has former top prospect Mick Abel (11.05 ERA) on the mound for his third appearance of the 2026 season. Abel has allowed 14 hits in 7.1 innings in 2026, and the Twins are 0-2 in his outings.

Let’s take a look at the betting odds, my favorite prop bet and a prediction for this AL Central battle on Thursday afternoon.

Tigers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Tigers -1.5 (+119)
Twins +1.5 (-143)

Moneyline

Tigers: -143
Twins: +119

Total

8 (Over -118/Under -102)

Tigers vs. Twins Probable Pitchers

Tigers: Jack Flaherty (0-1, 7.56 ERA)
Twins: Mick Abel (0-2, 11.05 ERA)

Tigers vs. Twins How to Watch

Date: Thursday, April 9
Time: 1:40 p.m. EST
Venue: Target Field
How to Watch (TV): ESPN Unlimited, Tigers.TV/Twins.TV
Tigers record: 4-8
Twins record: 6-6

Tigers vs. Twins Best MLB Prop Bets

Tigers Best MLB Prop Bet

Jack Flaherty OVER 2.5 Walks Allowed (-106)

This season, Flaherty has walked eight batters in 8.1 innings of work, allowing exactly four walks in both of his starts.

Now, he takes on a Minnesota offense that ranks fourth in MLB in walks drawn (56) this season. That’s a bad sign for Flaherty, especially if he’s able to work into the fifth inning – or deeper – on Thursday.

Flaherty averaged just 3.3 walks per nine innings last season, but he has allowed over four walks per nine innings in three other seasons in his career. Given his control issues so far in 2026, I think the OVER is a great bet in this market on April 9.

Tigers vs. Twins Prediction and Pick

Both of these starters have struggled out of the gate, so I’m looking to the OVER on Thursday afternoon.

The Twins are a top-10 team in MLB in runs scored this season (Detroit is 14th) and the Tigers are in the top half of MLB in OPS. The OVER has hit in six of the Tigers’ games this season, and I can’t trust Flaherty on the mound right now given his control issues.

Meanwhile, Abel has given up at least four runs in each of his starts, failing to pitch more than four innings in each outing.

Both teams are going to have to rely on their bullpens, and the Twins (4.84 bullpen ERA) have been pretty shaky in that department early in the 2026 campaign.

The Twins have reached at least eight combined runs in both of Abel’s starts, and the Tigers combined for 17 runs in a win in Flaherty’s last outing. I think we’re getting a pretty solid discount at this number, especially since the first three games in this series finished with 10, six and 14 combined runs.

Pick: OVER 8 (-118 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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