Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for MLK Day (Monday, Jan. 20)

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Memphis Grizzlies are both 5-5 straight up in their last 10 games heading into their matchup on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. Day.

Unfortunately for the Wolves, they aren’t as high in the standings (No. 8) as Memphis (No. 3) at this point in the season. With the Western Conference featuring very little separation between a top-six seed missing the play-in tournament, every game counts over the next few months for contending teams.

There’s a chance the Wolves could catch a break on Monday, as the Grizzlies have listed star guard Ja Morant as questionable for this matchup. Minnesota isn’t completely off the hook – even if Morant sits – as it won’t have Donte DiVincenzo in this game and has listed Rudy Gobert as questionable.

The Grizzlies won the first meeting between these teams this season by two points in Minnesota back on Jan.11. Can they cover as home favorites in this matinee matchup?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to watch in the prop market and my prediction on Monday.

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Timberwolves +6 (-112)
Grizzlies -6 (-108)

Moneyline

Timberwolves: +185
Grizzlies: -225

Total

235 (Over -110/Under -110)

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies How to Watch

Date: Monday, Jan. 20
Time: 2:30 p.m. EST
Venue: FedExForum
How to Watch (TV): TNT/truTV/Max
Timberwolves record: 22-20
Grizzlies record: 27-15

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

Donte DiVincenzo – out
Rudy Gobert – questionable
Terrence Shannon Jr. – out
Jesse Edwards – out
Tristen Newton – out

Grizzlies Injury Report

Zyon Pullin – out
Ja Morant – questionable
Zach Edey – available
Yuki Kawamura – out
Marcus Smart – out
Vince Williams Jr. – out
Cam Spencer – out

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bets

Minnesota Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Mike Conley OVER 3.5 Assists (-135)

With DiVincenzo out, the Wolves may need a little more out of veteran guard Mike Conley on Monday afternoon.

Conley is averaging 4.1 assists per game this season, but he’s only cleared this prop in four of his last 11 games (he’s made five starts over that stretch).

Conley, who has started the last two games, is averaging 4.3 dimes per game as a starter. With Memphis ranking No. 1 in pace, there should be plenty of offensive chances for Conley to cash in on this prop.

Memphis Grizzlies Best NBA Prop Bet

Desmond Bane OVER 18.5 Points (-120)

With Morant’s status up in the air on Monday, I’m buying Grizzlies wing Desmond Bane and his recent hot streak.

Bane is averaging 17.3 points per game this season, but he’s cleared 18.5 points in eight of his last nine games, averaging 22.4 points on 15.7 shots per game. That includes a 21-point game on 8-of-14 shooting against Minnesota.

I expect him to continue to thrive as a scorer on Monday.

Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Prediction and Pick

Memphis has been one of the best teams in the NBA as a home favorite in the 2024-25 season, covering in 12 of 18 games while posting an average scoring margin of +12.2 points in those games.

While Minnesota is an impressive 4-2 against the spread as a road underdog, I’m not totally sold on the Wolves sans DiVincenzo this afternoon.

Minnesota has the No. 7 defensive rating in the NBA, but it still is significantly behind the Grizzlies in terms of net rating (+7.5 compared to +1.9), and it’s a middling offensive team at this point in the season.

That’s where my concern mainly lies.

Memphis ranks No. 1 in the NBA in pace, and whether Morant plays or not, it is going to turn this matchup into a track meet. While the Grizzlies have an elite defensive efficiency (sixth in defensive rating) they still are 22nd in opponent points per game.

Can the Wolves take advantage of that?

In the first meeting between these teams, Minnesota did, scoring 125 points, but it still ended up losing. With Gobert questionable and DiVincenzo out, I’m not buying that the the Wolves will be able to keep up on the road.

Pick: Grizzlies -6 (-108)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.