Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Sunday, March 1

A massive game for seeding in the Western Conference takes place on Sunday afternoon on ABC, as the Denver Nuggets and Nikola Jokic host Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves.

Denver has dominated this matchup in the 2025-26 season, going 3-0, so it has already clinched the tiebreaker between the two teams. That’s a huge deal, as they both enter Sunday’s matchup at 37-23 in the 2025-26 season. So, the winner of this game will have sole possession of the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference (Houston is currently the No. 3 seed at 37-22).

Oddsmakers have set the Nuggets as 3.5-point favorites at home, but they remain without two key rotation pieces in Aaron Gordon (hamstring) and Peyton Watson (hamstring). That leaves the Nuggets with less options to defend Edwards, and Denver is just 4-6 in its last 10 games.

The Nuggets also haven’t been nearly as dominant as usual at home, going 16-11 straight up in the 2025-26 season.

Minnesota enters this game off of back-to-back wins over Portland and the Los Angeles Clippers, but it may be without Julius Randle (back, questionable) on Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, my favorite player prop and a prediction for this key Western Conference battle on Sunday.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Timberwolves +3.5 (-120)
Nuggets -3.5 (+100)

Moneyline

Timberwolves: +130
Nuggets: -155

Total

239.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 1
Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Ball Arena
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Timberwolves record: 37-23
Nuggets record: 37-23

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Injury Reports

Timberwolves Injury Report

Julius Randle – questionable
Jules Bernand – out
Rocco Zikarsky – out
Enrique Freeman – out

Nuggets Injury Report

Tamar Bates – out
Aaron Gordon – out
Peyton Watson – out
Cameron Johnson – probable
Curtis Jones – out
Spencer Jones – questionable

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Best NBA Prop Bets

Timberwolves Best NBA Prop Bet

Anthony Edwards OVER 29.5 Points (-120)

The last time these teams played, they went to overtime, and Edwards had a smooth 44 points in that matchup. The All-Star guard is averaging 29.6 points per game while shooting 49.3 percent from the field and 39.9 percent from beyond the arc.

He’s scored 31 or more points in three of his last four games, including a 40-point showing in a win over Dallas.

The Wolves aren’t running away with many of their wins, and that likely means we’ll see yet another close game with them on the road on Sunday. Edwards had 26 points in his other meeting with Denver, but he shot just 8-for-23 in that game.

With Watson and Gordon out, Edwards should dominate a Denver defense that is 21st in the league in defensive rating this season. Plus, if Randle (questionable) does sit, the Wolves will need even more from their All-NBA guard to compete on Sunday.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Prediction and Pick

Minnesota is just 4-4 against the spread as a road underdog this season, but I think it can hang around with a Denver team that has really struggled as of late, winning just four of 10 games while falling to 14-14 against teams that are .500 or better in the 2025-26 season.

The Nuggets’ defense has been a major concern after a strong first few weeks of the season, and Minnesota (ninth in offensive, eighth in defense) is one of the more balanced teams in the league.

Denver has covered the spread in just nine of 19 games as a home favorite, and after two double-digit road wins against the Wolves (one where Edwards didn’t play) it needed overtime to win by four points in the last meeting between these teams (in Denver).

Even if the Nuggets win this game, I have a hard time betting on them to pull away given how porous their defense has been this season. Plus, Minnesota getting swept by Denver would be pretty shocking since it’s played well against the Nuggets dating back to the 2023-24 playoffs.

I’ll take the points on Sunday afternoon.

Pick: Timberwolves +3.5 (-120 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

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