Timberwolves vs. Spurs Series Prediction, Odds, Best Bets for NBA Playoffs (Can San Antonio Sweep?)

Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs stormed through the first round of the playoffs, beating the Portland Trail Blazers in five games to move to No. 2 in the odds to win the NBA Finals this season.

Now, San Antonio faces the No. 6-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves in the Western Conference semifinals, a matchup that oddsmakers are expecting to be pretty lopsided.

Minnesota has made back-to-back Western Conference Finals appearances, but it is currently ravaged by injuries. Donte DiVincenzo (Achilles) is done for the season. Anthony Edwards (knee) is expected to miss the start of this series. And, Ayo Dosunmu (calf) missed the series-clinching win over Denver and is up in the air for Game 1.

Despite all of those injuries, the Wolves still upset Denver, winning outright as 7.5-point underdogs in Game 6. Chris Finch’s team has been elite on the defensive end of the floor, and it has a plethora of playoff experience, something the Spurs don’t have.

Still, San Antonio is -2000 to win this series after it won 62 games in the regular season, finishing with the third-best net rating in the league.

Here’s a look at the odds for this matchup and my series prediction with Wemby looking to make his first Western Conference Finals appearance of his career.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Series Odds

Timberwolves: +950
Spurs: -2000

The Spurs are massive favorites in this series with Edwards’ status unclear, and they won in five games against Portland after being set at a similar price in the first round. San Antonio currently has the third-best net rating of any playoff team (behind only the Oklahoma City Thunder and New York Knicks).

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Series Correct Score

Spurs in 4: +130
Spurs in 5: +200
Spurs in 6: +550
Spurs in 7: +750
Timberwolves in 7: +2200
Timberwolves in 6: +2500
Timberwolves in 5: +5000
Timberwolves in 4: +17000

San Antonio is favored to pull off a sweep in this series, even though it needed five games to beat Portland in the first round (partially due to Wemby’s concussion). The Timberwolves’ most likely outcome to win is in seven games, which is set at +2200 (and implied probability of 4.35 percent).

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Series Spread

Spurs -2.5 (-270)
Timberwolves +2.5 (+220)

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Series Total Games

5.5 (Over +230/Under -290)

Oddsmakers are expecting this series to be down in five games or less, setting the UNDER at -290 – which is good for an implied probability of 74.36 percent.

Timberwolves vs. Spurs Series Prediction

Since Edwards’ status for this series is up in the air, I can’t suggest betting on Minnesota to pull off an upset.

That being said, there weren’t many people that expected the Wolves to hang around in the series with Denver when Edwards was healthy, and they certainly weren’t expected to win the series once he went down.

Minnesota locked down the NBA’s No. 1 offense in the first round, and there is something to be said for the Wolves’ playoff battles over the last few years that have prepared them for this series. The Spurs – even though they have been the better team all year – have not been in this position and found themselves trailing in multiple games against an inexperienced Portland team in the first round.

Rudy Gobert made things very tough on Nikola Jokic in the first round, and Jaden McDaniels has emerged as a breakout star in the NBA Playoffs, dropping 32 points in Game 6 against Denver while locking up Jamal Murray, who shot 4-of-17 from the field. Can that duo do the same to De’Aaron Fox and Wembanyama?

Without Ant, it’s hard to see the Wolves having enough offense to beat a Spurs team that was in the top three in the league in defensive rating during the regular season. Denver was a much weaker defensive team, which allowed the Wolves to compete even when they were short-handed.

Still, I wouldn’t be shocked if Minnesota picks off a couple of games, especially if Edwards returns later in the series. San Antonio had multiple games against Portland that could’ve gone the other way, and a veteran team like the Wolves may be able to capitalize on that.

The Spurs are still my pick, but I’m betting on this matchup to reach six games.

Pick: Spurs in 6 (-2000, +550 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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