Toledo vs. Louisville Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Boca Raton Bowl

Both teams have been elite against the pass on defense.

Miller Moss and Louisville are favored against Toledo on Tuesday. / Matt Stone/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

This year’s Boca Raton Bowl will feature two teams meeting for the ninth time ever. Louisville will face Toledo as a 7.5-point favorite on Tuesday. The game will take place at Flagler Credit Union Stadium.

Louisville had a stint inside the top 25 before suffering three straight losses in November. The Cardinals boast of the ACC’s best defenses and were especially successful against the pass. That makes them a less than ideal matchup for a Rockets team that led the MAC in passing yards (2,928) this year. Toledo also had its conference’s top pass defense and can get going in other ways on offense, though.

Here’s our full betting breakdown ahead of kickoff.

Toledo vs. Louisville Odds, Spread and Total

Spread

• Toledo: +7.5 (-110)
• Louisville: -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

• Toledo: +245
• Louisville: -310

Total: 44.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Toledo vs. Louisville How to Watch

• Date: Tuesday, December 23
• Game Time: 2:00 PM EST
• Venue: Flagler Credit Union Stadium
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Toledo: 8-4
• Louisville: 8-4

Toledo vs. Louisville Key Players to Watch

Toledo

Tucker Gleason: Gleason has thrown for 2,515 yards and finished the regular season with an MAC-high 21 touchdown passes. He’s contributed some on the ground with four rushing scores as well. The Rockets quarterback has only failed to throw for a touchdown twice this season and notched at least a pair of passing touchdowns in three straight contests before his regular-season finale.

Louisville

Miller Moss: Moss has totaled 2,526 passing yards and 14 passing touchdowns with six picks in his first year with the Cardinals. He’s also recorded nine rushing scores despite the fact that he has -58 rushing yards on the year. Moss ended the regular season on a high note with three passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown against Kentucky. However, the Rockets’ defense has only allowed nine passing scores so far this season.

Toledo vs. Louisville Prediction and Pick

Toledo’s record against the spread (9-3) is better than Louisville’s, but we have to consider the difference in level of competition for the two programs.

The Rockets lost to Kentucky by eight as a 10-point underdog in Week 1, and that was their first and only matchup against a school in a power conference this season. The Cardinals played teams of that caliber of better most weeks this season and trampled the Wildcats in their last game.

Louisville blew Kentucky away 41-0 in its season finale and can do something similar to Toledo’s more respectable defense.

PICK: Louisville -7.5 (-110 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

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