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Truist Championship Picks, Props and Predictions: Betting Patrick Cantlay, Tommy Fleetwood and Viktor Hovland
Philly Cricket’s Wissahickon Course makes its PGA Tour debut as a one-year substitute for Quail Hollow, which hosts next week’s PGA Championship. This classic A.W. Tillinghast design should delight viewers who have never seen the course, while also providing a suitable challenge for players unfamiliar with the terrain.
There’s been a lot of rain in the Philadelphia area in the lead-up to this event, and there’s rain in the forecast for Thursday and Friday. Wind could also be a factor on Friday and Saturday.
This Par-70 course is short (7,100 yards), but there are a lot of bunkers, especially around the greens. Those greens are Wissahickon’s primary defense, with predominant back-to-front slopes and subtle undulations around the pin placements. Putting could be a defining factor this week.
The SI Golf betting panel is comprised of SI golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, Inside Sports Network Tap in Birdie podcast host Brian Kirschner, FanSided senior editor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. Each week, we make picks for our outright winner, longshot, first-round leader, favorite prop bet and winning score prediction.
We missed hitting an outright for the second straight week at the Byron Nelson after hitting in three of the previous four weeks. Overall, Kirschner leads the panel and is up +113.45 units on the year. Vincenzi (+86.1 units) and Williams (+18.65 units) follow. MacMillan (-33.26 units), Schwarb (-45.19 units) and Giuffra (-31.49 units) are still looking for their first outright wins.
A new course certainly presents an interesting challenge and opportunity for handicapping this event. Here are our picks for the Truist with explanations on the picks below the graphic.
Outright Pick
Iain MacMillan: Tommy Fleetwood +2800 (DraftKings)
It’s time for me to use my one yearly bet on Tommy Fleetwood to finally win an event on North American soil. He heads into this week’s Trust Championship ranking fourth in the field in tru strokes-gained tee to green over the past three months. He’s also coming off a solo seventh finish at the RBC Heritage. Finally, Fleetwood’s underrated scrambling ability will go a long way at Philadelphia Cricket Club.
Matt Vincenzi: Patrick Cantlay +2200 (DraftKings)
Cantlay has played well at Tillinghast designs (T8 at Ridgewood CC), has success in this region and has won in both Maryland and Delaware in strong field events. Wilmington Country Club is extremely close in location to Philadelphia Cricket Club. Despite not winning, he continues to strike the ball beautifully. In his most recent start at Harbour Town, the 33-year-old ranked 1st in strokes-gained off the tee and 15th in strokes-gained approach.
John Schwarb: Justin Thomas +1800 (DraftKings)
Without track records to study at Philly Cricket, you have to pick your favorite hot hand, and for me, that’s JT. The RBC Heritage was the drought-buster and he’s been resting since. Now I think he’ll embrace the challenge of a new course and ride a winning streak into the PGA Championship.
Brian Kirschner: Vitkor Hovland +2800 (FanDuel)
I believe that Viktor Hovland possesses a lot more win equity than a lot of his competitors in this range, so I will gladly take a 28/1 on the 2023 FedEx Cup Champion. If you look at Hovland’s wins and best performances, they have come on classical bentgrass courses with moderate scoring. Oak Hill, Muirfield Village and Olympia Fields all come to mind as places Hovland has thrived. I believe these course conditions suit his game and he will be in contention come Sunday.
Cody Williams: Corey Conners +3000 (FanDuel)
Corey Conners is playing a complete game right now and seems made to have success at Philadelphia Cricket Club. Over the last 20 rounds, he’s fourth in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green with accurate driving and is typically strong in approach play. Most importantly, a positive short game. He’s 10th in scrambling in the field over the last 16 rounds. With all of that coming together, don’t rule out the Canadian to come through this week in Philly.
Brian Giuffra: Shane Lowry +3700 (Bet365)
This has been the year of the Europeans and with a wet and potentially windy few days in store in Philly on a classic course, I think this profiles well for Lowry. I also like him on shorter courses where positioning off the tee and accurate approaches are key. Lowry is 11th in SG: Approach and 12th in distance to the hole on Tour, which should serve him well on a course that demands hitting it in the right places on the greens. I believe this week will be won on the greens and Lowry is a solid putter as well. He hasn’t finished this season and he hasn’t won an individual tournament since his Open Championship victory in 2019. But things are lining up for him in Philly.
Longshot
Iain MacMillan: Patrick Rodgers +12000 (FanDuel)
Jason Day withdrawing from the event has allowed Patrick Rodgers into the field. Now, he’s playing with house money and is an underrated competitor. He has already contended at a signature event this season, finishing T3 at the Genesis Invitational. He’s also coming off a strong T15 finish at the CJ Cup last week. He’ll need to get his irons going, but he’s an interesting option at 120-1.
Matt Vincenzi: Justin Rose +6500 (DraftKings)
Justin Rose has had success in the area, winning at Merion in 2013. He prefers putting on Bentgrass greens and demonstrated at the Masters he still can compete with the best in the world on the big stage.
John Schwarb: Harris English +9000 (DraftKings)
Harris English finished T12 at the Masters and venerable Philly Cricket could be the same kind of place where artistry is demanded and rewarded. Or just put longshot money on a great putter, and English is that.
Brian Kirschner: Harris English +10000 (Bet365)
Another golfer who has shown a lot of success in the northeast, the 2021 winner of The Travelers Championship has always thrived on bentgrass greens. Already a winner this year at Torrey Pines, Harris has put together some great finishes since. With an 18th in Houston and an impressive 12th at the Masters, I believe he is in the form to win again on the PGA Tour.
Cody Williams: Ryan Gerard +12000 (FanDuel)
You won’t talk me out of loving Ryan Gerard as someone who’s still trending toward something great, and a shorter course like this one should set up for him to deliver exactly that. While he missed the cut last week, he had three Top 12 finishes in his previous four starts coming in. He’s been a maven around the greens and with his short game while also playing extremely well on approach. With all of that coming in, I think he’s heading to one of his best fits yet this season.
Brian Giuffra: Justin Rose +6500 (DraftKings)
Sticking with my Euro theme, Rose is a great putter on bentgrass and has a history of success in the Philly area. He won the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion and the 2011 BMW Championship at Aronimink Golf Club, both of which are right down the street from Philly Cricket. Overall, seven of his career wins have come on bentgrass. His putting has been phenomenal this year and he’s 21st in SG: Approach among the field over his last eight events. Being back in this area seems to bring out the best and this classic course fits his game well.
First-Round Lead
Iain MacMillan: Rory McIlroy +1200 (FanDuel)
With Scottie Scheffler not teeing it up this week, Rory McIlroy is the rightful runaway favorite. Instead of betting on him to win the whole thing at +450, I’m going to bet him to be the first-round leader at much longer odds. He’s first in the field in true strokes gained over the past four months, +0.45 more per round than any other golfer competing this week. Let’s see if he can start off hot in his first individual event since winning the Masters.
Matt Vincenzi: Hideki Matsuyama +3500 (FanDuel)
Matsuyama has had a lot of success in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions. He also finished fifth at the 2016 PGA Championship at Baltusrol, which is an A.W. Tillinghast design. The Japanese star has excelled this season with his wedges and ranks second in his last 50 rounds on approach shots from 100 to 150 yards. Hitting close approaches on the difficult multi-tiered greens will be a major key to success this week.
John Schwarb: Denny McCarthy +4500 (DraftKings)
Sitting 35th in FedEx Cup points, Denny McCarthy is having a very respectable year that could end at East Lake. He’s made some hay in bigger events—T5 at the Genesis, 18th at Arnold Palmer, T14 at the Players—and this is another week to bank boosted points. He’s on the short list of the best putters on Tour and his first rounds have been his best this year, so let’s see if he can be a rabbit in Philly.
Brian Kirschner: Keegan Bradley +4000 (DraftKings)
The last time there was a new bent grass course on the East Coast on the PGA Tour, Keegan was the first-round leader at the 2022 BMW Championship. Now, golf betting is not always that simple, but I do believe that Keegan elevates his game in the northeast and he is always live for a first-round leader.
Cody Williams: Russell Henly +3500 (DraftKings)
A relatively short golf course with an emphasis on approach play and short game? Go ahead and lock me in for a low one from Russell Henley. He finished T8 at the RBC Heritage a few weeks ago, another obvious course fit, and is gaining at least 0.38 strokes on approach, around the green and with the putter over his last 20 rounds. He’s balanced, accurate and in nice form, so give me Henley to get off to a hot start.
Brian Giuffra: Brian Harman +5000 (DraftKings)
Another player who benefits from a shorter course, Harman started the season slow but is on a hot streak with a win at the Velro, a T36 at Augusta and a T3 at the RBC Heritage. He’s short off the tee, but accurate, which should help him in Round 1 when the conditions should be soft and approach matters most. He’s a good putter on bentgrass (two career wins) and is 19th on Tour in proximity with approach. His lowest scoring average comes in Round 1 this year as well, so I expect a strong start from him.
Prop Bet
Iain MacMillan: Alex Noren Top 20 +300 (DraftKings)
Alex Noren will be making his long-awaited return to the PGA Tour, his first start since last October. Don’t forget, Noren finished 12th on the Tour in total strokes gained last season. Can he show flashes of his 2024 form in his first start since recovering from a leg injury? Let’s find out.
Matt Vincenzi: Patrick Cantlay Top 10 +400 (BetRivers)
When looking at the specifics of Philadelphia Cricket Club, it immediately stood out to me that this could be a perfect Cantlay golf course. Over his last 24 rounds, the former FedEx Cup champion ranks sixth in strokes-gained approach and 15th in strokes-gained off the tee. I expect him to be in contention this week.
John Schwarb: Denny McCarthy Top 10 +360 (DraftKings)
Playing off my FRL pick, Denny McCarthy has played well in bigger events this year and the spoils of signature events are key to his playoff outlook come August. On a course where pretty much everyone’s a rookie, I’ll back a great putter to be playing later on Sunday and come home safely in the Top 10.
Brian Kirschner: Daniel Berger Top 20 +130 (DraftKings)
Berger has finished inside the Top 20 in five of his last eight starts on the PGA Tour. He really is playing some of the most consistent golf on Tour and I believe is due for another big finish at an elevated event to solidify his spot on the Ryder Cup team at Bethpage.
Cody Williams: Ryan Gerard Top 30 +150 (BetMGM)
More Gerard. There’s obviously a reason that he’s 120/1 to win this tournament, but finishing, essentially, in the top half of the field and still being plus odds is just ignoring his body of work leading into this week. He’s been playing some of the best golf of his career and, even in a signature event, I like the course fit enough to think he can crack the Top 30 this week (especially with ties included, because we hate dead heat rules in this household).
Brian Giuffra: Brian Harman Top 20 +200 (DraftKings)
I like to group my prop bets with a player I project to contend and Harman fits that. His first Top 20 of the year came at the Genesis, where there was also some adverse weather conditions. It seems Harman plays better when the weather is worse. I also like a 2/1 payout on a player who I think could push for a Top 10.
Final Score
- Iain MacMillan: -16
- Matt Vincenzi: -14
- John Schwarb: -12
- Brian Kirschner: -17
- Cody Williams: -13
- Brian Giuffra: -15
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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