Twins vs. Nationals Prediction, Odds: Bet the OVER With Struggling Starters on the Mound

The Washington Nationals and Minnesota Twins have traded blowout wins to open this week, and now Washington is a slight favorite at home in Thursday afternoon’s series finale.

The Twins won the opener between these teams 11-3, but Washington’s offense responded with 15 runs in a 15-2 win on Wednesday night. Now, two struggling starters take on the mound on Thursday, pushing this total to 9 at DraftKings.

Simeon Woods Richardson (6.49 ERA) gets the ball for the Twins against Washington’s Jake Irvin (4.93 ERA). The Nationals are favored despite the fact that they are just 5-13 straight up at home in the 2026 season.

Both of these teams are under .500 so far in 2026, and it’s hard to see either making the playoffs given how bad their bullpens have been. The Twins are 29th in bullpen ERA (5.83) while the Nationals have one of the 10 worst bullpen ERAs this season (4.67).

Could we see another high-scoring game on Thursday?

Here’s a look at the odds, a player prop to bet and my prediction for this interleague showdown.

Twins vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Twins -1.5 (+153)
Nationals +1.5 (-186)

Moneyline

Twins: -108
Nationals: -112

Total

9 (Over -112/Under -108)

Twins vs. Nationals Probable Pitchers

Minnesota: Simeon Woods Richardson (05, 6.49 ERA)
Washington: Jake Irvin (1-4, 4.93 ERA)

Twins vs. Nationals How to Watch

Date: Thursday, May 7
Time: 1:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Nationals Park
How to Watch (TV): Nationals.TV/Twins.TV
Twins record: 16-21
Nationals record: 17-20

Twins vs. Nationals Best MLB Prop Bets

Nationals Best MLB Prop Bet

CJ Abrams to Hit a Home Run (+505)

Abrams has been red hot as of late for the Nationals, and I believe he’s mispriced against Woods Richardson and one of the worst pitching staffs in MLB.

The Twins have the second-worst bullpen ERA this season, allowing 14 home runs in the process, so Abrams should be able to make noise in all of his at-bats on Thursday. The Nationals shortstop has nine home runs already this season (all against right-handed pitching) and he’s hitting .364 with two homers over the last week (six games).

Woods Richardson has only faced Abrams five times in his career, but the Nationals star did homer off of him in those at-bats.

On top of that, the Twins righty has given up eight home runs in seven appearances this season, allowing at least one homer in every game. At +505, Abrams is a steal against any right-handed pitcher since he’s posted a 1.089 OPS against them in 2026.

Twins vs. Nationals Prediction and Pick

How can we not bet on a high-scoring affair in this series finale?

These teams combined for 14 and 17 runs in their first two games and the OVER has smashed for both squads all season:

The OVER is 23-12-2 in Washington’s games this season (65.7 percent)
The OVER is 21-13-3 in Minnesota’s games this season (61.8 percent)

Woods Richardson has struggled all season long, ranking in the 23rd percentile in expected ERA and the 20th percentile in expected batting average against. That has led to a lot of innings for the Twins’ bullpen, which has not been good in 2026.

Meanwhile, Irvin ranks in the 29th percentile in expected ERA and has allowed three or more runs in four of his seven starts. The Nationals have combined for at least nine runs in five of the righty’s seven outings.

Both of these offenses have actually been really good in 2026, ranking fourth (Washington) and ninth (Minnesota) in runs scored. So, I wouldn’t be shocked if they jump on these struggling starters, especially since each offense has put together a monster game already in this series.

Pick: OVER 9 (-112 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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