Twins vs. Orioles Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers, Prop Bets for MLB Opening Day

The Minnesota Twins and Baltimore Orioles both finished well under .500 in the 2025 campaign, but a new season brings new expectations and hope.

Baltimore made some major moves in the offseason, adding All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso while also bolstering its pitching staff by acquiring Shane Baz in a trade and signing Chris Bassitt.

Meanwhile, the Twins didn’t add a ton to their roster after winning just 70 games in the 2025 season. That puts them in a tough spot in the AL Central, which is led by the Detroit Tigers and their star-studded pitching staff.

On Opening Day, the Twins have ace Joe Ryan (3.42 ERA last season) on the mound against Orioles youngster Trevor Rogers, who had a 1.81 ERA in 18 starts last season and finished ninth in the voting for the AL Cy Young.

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Oddsmakers have set the O’s as favorites at home, where they were 39-42 last season.

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for Thursday’s season opener.

Twins vs. Orioles Odds, Run Line and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line

Twins +1.5 (-181)
Orioles -1.5 (+149)

Moneyline

Twins: +119
Orioles: -143

Total

8 (Over -118/Under -102)

Twins vs. Orioles Probable Pitchers

Minnesota: Joe Ryan (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
Baltimore: Trevor Rogers (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

Twins vs. Orioles How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 26
Time: 3:05 p.m. EST
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
How to Watch (TV): Twins.TV and MASN
Twins record: 0-0
Orioles record: 0-0

Twins vs. Orioles Best MLB Prop Bet

Twins Best MLB Prop Bet

Joe Ryan OVER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-179)

There’s a chance that the Twins and other teams take things easy with their starters early in the season, but Ryan pitched at least five innings in 29 of his 31 starts last season, making him a pretty reliable target in this bet.

The O’s should have an improved offense with Alonso in the fold, but Ryan had just eight starts all season where he allowed more than three earned runs. That should keep him in this game, and he threw five innings on Saturday in a Spring Training game.

I love this number for the Twins ace on Opening Day.

Twins vs. Orioles Prediction and Pick

Last season, these were two of the top teams at hitting the “No Run First Inning” prop, and I think they get the 2026 season starting with zeros in the opening frame.

Ryan is coming off an All-Star 2025 season, and while he has dealt with some back tightness this spring, he should be good to go against this O’s lineup. Baltimore is getting a lot of respect in this game for adding Alonso in the offseason, but I’m not totally buying the Orioles hype train just yet.

Last season, the O’s hit the NRFI in 74.07 percent of their games – the fifth-highest rate in MLB. The Twins weren’t far behind, hitting the NRFI in 72.84 percent of their games.

Both Ryan and Rogers had strong 2025 seasons, and Rogers had a 1.50 ERA in the first inning of games. Ryan wasn’t great in the opening frame (4.80 ERA), but I can’t look past the pick’em price in this prop with two No. 1 starters on the mound.

Pick: NRFI (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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