UMass Lowell vs. UMBC Prediction, Odds for America East Playoffs Semifinal

The first program to win as a No. 16 seed in the NCAA Tournament could be back for more this March, as the UMBC Retrievers are the No. 1 seed in the America East Playoffs heading into a semifinal matchup with the UMass Lowell River Hawks.

UMBC has won 10 games in a row, including a 24-point win at UMass Lowell back on Feb. 28.

In fact, the Retrievers are 2-0 against the River Hawks this season, winning by 23 points in their other meeting. So, it’s interesting that oddsmakers have UMass Lowell as just a 6.5-point underdog in this conference tournament battle.

The winner of this matchup will advance to the final of the American East Playoffs to take on the winner of the NJIT vs. Vermont matchup. Vermont is heavily favored to advance in that game.

UMass Lowell finished the regular season two games under .500, but it did go 9-7 in conference play to earn the No. 4 seed in the American East Playoffs. Can it pull off an upset against this vaunted Retrievers squad?

Let’s examine the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Tuesday’s matchup with a trip to the final on the line.

UMass Lowell vs. UMBC Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

UMass Lowell +6.5 (-110)
UMBC -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

UMass Lowell: +225
UMBC: -280

Total

145.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

UMass Lowell vs. UMBC How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, March 10
Time: 6:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
UMass Lowell record: 15-17
UMBC record: 22-8

UMass Lowell vs. UMBC Key Player to Watch

Jah'Likai King, Guard, UMBC

Junior guard Jah'Likai King had a massive game against UMass Lowell on Feb. 28, scoring 24 points on 9-of-13 shooting, and he’s averaging 17.0 points per game against the River Hawks this season.

King leads UMBC in points per game (14.0) and steals per game (0.9) while shooting 42.2 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from 3. UMass Lowell has one of the worst defensive ratings in the country (per KenPom), so the Retrievers are certainly hoping King can duplicate his performance from their win last month.

UMass Lowell vs. UMBC Prediction and Pick

UMBC may not be as good as it was when it upset Virginia in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, but the Retrievers are clearly the better team in this matchup.

Not only did UMBC beat the River Hawks by 23 and 24 during the regular season, but it closed America East regular-season action on a huge winning streak, going 14-2 against the conference.

UMass Lowell was 9-7, but it was 0-4 against the top two teams (UMBC and Vermont).

The River Hawks are not a good defensive team, ranking 316 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency and 271st in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage. In addition to that, they have struggled with turnovers, ranking 266th in the country in turnover rate.

Now, the Retrievers aren’t a perfect team on paper, but they do a few things really well:

UMBC is 29th in the country in turnover rate
UMBC is ninth in the country in defensive rebound rate
UMBC is 12th in the country in opponent free-throw rate

So, even though this UMBC team ranks 198th in KenPom, it has a recipe to win the turnover battle, win the rebounding battle and it doesn’t send opponents to the line all that often. That’s huge against a UMass Lowell team that is 278th in 3-point percentage and outside the top-200 in effective field goal percentage this season.

I think UMBC is undervalued as just a 6.5-point favorite given its success against the River Hawks in the regular season.

Pick: UMBC -6.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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