UMass vs. Miami (OH) Prediction, Odds for MAC Championship Quarterfinal

The Miami (OH) RedHawks have yet to lose a game this season, but that hasn’t guaranteed them a spot in the NCAA Tournament (in the eyes of some) ahead of their MAC Championship quarterfinal matchup with UMass.

The No. 1 seed in the MAC, Miami (OH) is hoping to win the conference tournament to take away any possibility of it missing the Big Dance.

Oddsmakers have set the RedHawks as 7.5-point favorites in the MAC quarters against the UMass Minutemen, who they beat by two and nine their meetings during the regular season.

The RedHawks showed some signs of mortality down the stretch of conference play, winning their last three games all by two points. Can they pick up a convincing win to advance in their conference tournament?

Here’s a look at the latest odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Thursday morning’s matchup.

UMass vs. Miami (OH) Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

UMass +7.5 (-110)
Miami (OH) -7.5 (-110)

Moneyline

UMass: +250
Miami (OH): -310

Total

164.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

UMass vs. Miami (OH) How to Watch

Date: Thursday, March 12
Time: 11:00 a.m. EST
Venue: Rocket Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
UMass record: 16-15
Miami (OH) record: 31-0

UMass vs. Miami (OH) Key Player to Watch

Leonardo Bettiol, Forward, UMass

The leading scorer and rebounder for the Minutemen, Bettiol is averaging 17.8 points, 7.9 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game while shooting 60.6 percent from the field this season.

He could help swing this game in UMass’ favor, as the RedHawks struggled to keep him in check in two regular-season meetings. Bettiol averaged 20.0 points and 12.5 rebounds per game in his games against Miami (OH), shooting 60.9 percent from the field. The Red Hawks do rank just 143rd in the country in opponent 2-point percentage this season.

UMass vs. Miami (OH) Prediction and Pick

If there’s one blemish on the Miami (OH) resume, it’s the team’s defense this season despite playing a relatively easy schedule compared to other teams that could be fighting for an at-large bid (if the RedHawks lose in the conference tournament).

KenPom has the RedHawks at No. 139 in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, and there are a few concerning numbers for Miami, especially after it played several close games down the stretch of the regular season:

Miami is 143rd in opponent 2-point percentage
Miami is 137th in opponent 3-point percentage
Miami is allowing 76.0 points per game

UMass has scored 77 and 84 points against the RedHawks in two meetings, showing that it can compete on the offensive end. The issue? The Minutemen aren’t nearly as talented as the RedHawks on offense and have given up over 80 points in both of their meetings.

UMass’ defense is outside the top-200 in the country, per KenPom, and it ranks 302nd in the country in opponent 2-point percentage. That is not going to cut it against a Miami (OH) team that is third in 2-point percentage and sixth in effective field goal percentage this season.

Rather than take a side in this matchup, I’m going to trust these offenses to control the game, especially since these teams have combined for 170 and 163 points in their two previous meetings.

Pick: OVER 164.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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