UMBC vs. Howard Prediction, Odds, Key Player to Watch for NCAA Tournament First Four

The 2026 NCAA Tournament will begin on Tuesday night when the UMBC Retrievers and the Howard Bison will play against each other in the First Four. The good news is, one of these two schools will enjoy a tournament win; the bad news is the winner will have to take on No. 1 seed, Michigan, on Thursday.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet between the American East and MEAC Champions.

UMBC vs. Howard Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

UMBC -1.5 (+102)
Howard +1.5 (-122)

Moneyline

UMBC -120
Howard +100

Total

OVER 139.5 (-112)
UNDER 139.5 (-108)

UMBC vs. Howard How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, March 17
Game Time: 6:40 pm ET
Venue: UD Arena
How to Watch (TV): truTV
UMBC Record: 24-8
Howard Record: 23-10

UMBC vs. Howard Betting Trends

UMBC is 6-0 ATS in its last six games
The UNDER is 6-2 in UMBC's last eight games
UMBC is 5-0 ATS in its last five games as the favorite
Howard is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Howard is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as an underdog

UMBC vs. Howard Key Player to Watch

Bryce Harris, G - Howard Bison

Bryce Harris is leading Howard in points per game, averaging 17.1, rebounds per game, averaging 6.9, and blocks per game, averaging 1.1. He is by far the most important player on the court in this game, so UMBC will have to figure out a way to shut him down.

UMBC vs. Howard Prediction and Pick

In the Road to the Final Four, I broke down why I'm backing UMBC in this spot.:

Howard is a great defensive team, but its shooting is going to be a problem. The Bison rank just 212th in effective field goal percentage, far below UMBC, which comes in at 72nd in that metric. Meanwhile, UMBC can match Howard defensively, ranking 45th in defensive efficiency.

Howard also ranks in the top 100 in the country in two-point shot rate, but now they have to face a tough UMBC front court. The Retrievers keep teams to shooting 49.7% from two-point range.

Howard also has a significant turnover problem, ranking 341st in turnovers per possession, coughing it up on 19.2% of their possessions. UMBC ranks 28th in that metric. If the Retrievers win the turnover battle, they're going to be in a great spot to win this game.

Pick: UMBC -1.5 (+102) via DraftKings

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