UNC vs. NC State Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Tuesday, Feb. 17

The No. 16 North Carolina Tar Heels fell in the AP Poll after losing to Miami last week, and they find themselves as road underdogs in a rivalry matchup with the NC State Wolfpack.

Star freshman Caleb Wilson (fractured hand) remains out of the lineup, but there have been some positive injury updates on him. Tar Heels head coach Hubert Davis said that Wilson would play with his splint on, and that he expects him to be back on the floor soon.

"If I said OK, I think he would play with his splint on." UNC's Hubert Davis on his radio show when discussing Caleb Wilson's injury

"He'll be back on the floor soon."

Again, no official timetable for Wilson's return, but Wilson has said "it's not over" for him in Chapel Hill.
— Rodd Baxley (@RoddBaxley) February 17, 2026

If the projected top-five pick can return by the ACC Tournament, it would be a massive boost for UNC’s national title odds.

However, UNC is facing an uphill battle without Wilson at the moment, especially against a Wolfpack team that is 9-4 in the ACC and 10-4 at home.

Still, NC State has dropped two games in a row against Louisville and Miami, and it has a tough schedule to close out the season with UNC, Virginia and Duke still on the docket.

Here’s a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Tuesday’s ACC clash.

UNC vs. NC State Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

UNC +6.5 (-112)
NC State -6.5 (-108)

Moneyline

UNC: +225
NC State: -278

Total

158.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

UNC vs. NC State How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 17
Time: 7:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Lenovo Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
UNC record: 20-5
NC State record: 18-8

UNC vs. NC State Key Players to Watch

Seth Trimble, Guard, UNC

Both Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar have been banged up, and the latter is questionable for tonight’s matchup.

So, third-leading scorer Seth Trimble (13.9 points per game) is going to be asked to step up against the Wolfpack. This season, Trimble is shooting 46.5 percent from the field and 32.6 percent from 3, and he’s coming off a 19-point showing in a win over Pitt.

However, in the loss to Miami, Trimble scored just four points, and his up-and-down scoring could end up costing the Tar Heels in this crucial road date.

UNC vs. NC State Prediction and Pick

If both teams were healthy, we’d see a much different line in this game since UNC (28th in KenPom) is slightly ahead of NC State (31st in KenPom) in several metrics.

However, I can’t back this North Carolina team on the road without Wilson and potentially without Veesaar.

UNC is 15-0 at home but just 3-4 on the road, going 3-4 against the spread in those games. NC State (47th in adjusted defensive efficiency) is going to make it tough on the Tar Heels if they’re down their two leading scorers and two of their top inside presences.

Veesaar playing could shift this line a bit towards UNC, but after the loss to Miami, I don’t think the Tar Heels can be trusted on the road against a quality opponent. NC State is 6-6-1 against the spread at home this season, and it’s actually ahead of the Tar Heels in the ACC standings.

I’m buying the Wolfpack to win big on Tuesday night.

Pick: NC State -6.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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