UNC vs. Virginia Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Saturday, Jan. 24

The Duke Blue Devils are still the top dog in the ACC, but the Virginia Cavaliers are making a strong argument they'that re the No. 2 team in the conference.

Virginia has rattled off five straight wins since losing to Virginia Tech in triple overtime. Now, the Cavaliers have a chance to beat a nationally ranked team when they host the UNC Tar Heels on Saturday afternoon. UNC is coming off a big 91-69 win against Notre Dame.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this matinee matchup.

UNC vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

UNC +6.5 (-110)
Virginia -6.5 (-110)

Moneyline

UNC +235
Virginia -290

Total

OVER 148.5 (-115)
UNDER 148.5 (-105)

UNC vs. Virginia How to Watch

Date: Saturday, January 24
Game Time: Noon ET
Venue: John Paul Jones Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
UNC Record: 15-4 (3-3 in ACC)
Virginia Record: 16-2 (5-1 in ACC)

UNC vs. Virginia Betting Trends

UNC is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
The OVER is 5-0 in UNC's last five games
UNC is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games vs. Virginia
The OVER is 8-1 in UNC's last nine road games
UNC is 0-6 ATS in its last six games played on a Saturday
Virginia is 5-0 ATS in its last five games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Virginia's last five games
The UNDER is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings between these two teams

UNC vs. Virginia Key Player to Watch

Caleb Wilson, F - UNC Tar Heels

The UNC Tar Heels have one of the best front courts in the ACC between Caleb Wilson and Henri Veesaar. Wilson is leading the team in both points per game (19.8) and rebounds per game (10.4). He's also leading the Tar Heels per game (1.6) and blocks (1.4). Let's see if he can take over this game against an ACC opponent.

UNC vs. Virginia Prediction and Pick

The numbers are too close in this game to justify a 6.5-point spread. Virginia is 35th in effective field goal percentage, while UNC comes in at 44th. The two teams also rank 30th and 38th in defensive efficiency. Sure, the Cavaliers outrank them by both, but is it by enough to lay 6.5 points on them?

I'll take the points with the Tar Heels in a game that all the metrics show is close to a coin flip. Let's hope it comes down to the wire.

Pick: UNC +6.5 (-110) via DraftKings

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