USA vs. Canada Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for World Baseball Classic Quarterfinal

The United States needed some help, but they’re in the knockout stage of the 2026 World Baseball Classic. The Pool B runner-ups will face off against Pool A champion Canada on Friday night in Houston.

The United States breezed through their first few games, beating Brazil 15-5 and Great Britain 9-1 before clawing out a 5-3 victory over Mexico. They then took their foot off the gas against Italy, losing 8-6.

Canada also went 3-1 through pool play, beating Colombia 8-2 then losing 4-3 to Panama. They then finished with a 3-2 win over Puerto Rico and 7-2 victory over Cuba.

The winner of this game will advance to the semifinals and face off against whoever wins the South Korea vs. Dominican Republic matchup.

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for United States vs. Canada on Friday night.

United States vs. Canada Odds & Run Line

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

United States -800
Canada +500

Run Line

United States -4.5 (-125)
Canada +4.5 (+100

Total

9.5 (Over -120/Under -105)

United States vs. Canada Probable Pitchers

United States: Logan Webb (4 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 6 K)
Canada: Michael Soroka (3 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K)

United States vs. Canada How to Watch

Date: Friday, March 13
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: Daikin Park – Houston, TX
How to Watch (TV): FOX

United States vs. Canada Prediction and Pick

Webb and Soroka both had strong enough starts in their first outings and now get the ball in the win-or-go-home quarterfinal matchup.

With a one-game elimination tournament like this one, a team being a big favorite in the quarterfinals isn’t necessarily a good thing, at least on the run line. If the United States takes a big lead, they may opt to save some of their top bullpen options for the semifinal, allowing Canada to claw back into the game.

The United States also couldn’t put away Mexico in a similar situation, winning by two as -3.5 favorites.

Webb should keep this a low-scoring game, and Soroka has enough to limit the United States’ offense. I’m torn between the UNDER 9.5 and Canada +4.5, but am going with the Canadians here.

Pick: Canada +4.5 (+100)

Unlock $200 in bonus bets — all without a promo code for DraftKings. Sign up and place a $5 bet and you will receive $200 in bonus bets instantly.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.