USC vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Monday, Jan. 5

Iain MacMillan | Jan 5, 2026

Tom Izzo and the Michigan State Spartans are home favorites against the USC Trojans on Monday. / Dylan Widger-Imagn Images

The Michigan State Spartans are coming off a tough two-point loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers, while the USC Trojans are looking to bounce back after a 96-66 loss to Michigan.

The two Big Ten schools will now go to battle on Monday in what promises to be a fascinating showdown between two nationally ranked teams. Let's dive into the odds and my best bet.

USC vs. Michigan State Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

• USC +10.5 (-105)
• Michigan State -10.5 (-115)

Moneyline

• USC +490
• Michigan State -710

Total

• OVER 151.5 (-105)
• UNDER 151.5 (-115)

USC vs. Michigan State How to Watch

• Date: Monday, January 5
• Game Time: 8:30 pm ET
• Venue: Breslin Center
• How to Watch (TV): FS1
• USC Record: 12-2 (1-2 in Big Ten)
• Michigan State Record: 12-2 (2-1 in Big Ten)

USC vs. Michigan State Betting Trends

• USC is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
• The OVER is 6-2 in USC's last eight games
• USC is 1-7 ATS in its last eight road games
• The OVER is 15-5 in USC's last 20 games vs. Big Ten opponents
• Michigan State is 0-4-2 ATS in its last six games
• The UNDER is 13-5 in Michigan State's last 18 games
• Michigan State is 10-1 straight up in its last 11 home games

USC vs. Michigan State Key Player to Watch

• Jeremy Fears Jr., G - Michigan State

Jeremy Fears Jr. runs the Michigan State offense. He's averaging 11.7 points per game, but more importantly, he is averaging 9.1 assists per game, which is the second-highest assist rate in the country. For Michigan State to truly be a contender, the Spartans need Fears to improve on his 40.5% field goal percentage.

USC vs. Michigan State Prediction and Pick

There's no doubt that Michigan State should be favored in this game, but I think the spread has gotten out of hand. The Spartans have an effective field goal percentage of just 52.6%, which ranks 124th in the country. It's hard to cover big spreads if you're a defense-first team that struggles to put up points.

USC is the better shooting team, and the Trojans hold their own defensively, ranking inside the top 100 in defensive efficiency. As long as their defense doesn't fall apart, the Trojans can keep this game well within the double-digit spread.

Pick: USC +10.5 (-105) via FanDuel

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