UT Rio Grande vs. McNeese Prediction, Odds for Southland Tournament Semifinal

The No. 3 UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros are battling for a spot in the Southland Conference Tournament final on Tuesday when they take on the No. 2 McNeese Cowboys.

McNeese is a 7.5-point favorite in this matchup after posting a 19-3 record in Southland Conference play during the regular season. This is just the 10th time this season that the Vaqueros are underdogs, and they are 6-3 against the spread in those matchups.

These teams met twice in the regular season, splitting those matchups. McNeese won by seven points at home while UT Rio Grande Valley won by three points in its home matchup.

So, these teams are pretty evenly matched entering this semifinal clash.

While oddsmakers seem to think that McNeese is on a collision course to face Stephen F. Austin in the final (both teams are 7.5-point favorites in the semis), the Vaqueros aren’t going to go easily.

Here’s a look at the latest odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Southland Conference Tournament matchup.

UT Rio Grande vs. McNeese Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

UT Rio Grande +7.5 (-102)
McNeese -7.5 (-118)

Moneyline

UT Rio Grande: +310
McNeese: -395

Total

139.5 (Over -112/Under -108)

UT Rio Grande vs. McNeese How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, March 10
Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Townsley Law Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN+
UT Rio Grande record: 19-13
McNeese record: 26-5

UT Rio Grande vs. McNeese Key Player to Watch

Larry Johnson, Guard, McNeese

A freshman guard, Larry Johnson has been dynamic for the Cowboys all season long, averaging 17.2 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.4 assists per game while shooting 51.1 percent from the field.

He’s not much of a 3-point shooter (23.6 percent this season), but Johnson has given the Vaqueros trouble, averaging 18.5 points and 6.0 rebounds per game in his meetings with them.

McNeese has won eight games in a row heading into this semifinal battle, and Johnson has been at the forefront of that streak, scoring 20 or more points in three of his last five games.

UT Rio Grande vs. McNeese Prediction and Pick

McNeese is the No. 1 team in the country at forcing turnovers, posting an opponent turnover rate of 24.7 in the 2025-26 season. That makes it a tough team to play for any offense, including the Vaqueros, who are 266th in turnover rate.

However, UT Rio Grande Valley has a way to make up for its turnover issues, as it ranks 31st in the country in 3-point percentage and 19th in opponent 3-point percentage. So, the Vaqueros may be able to shoot themselves into this game against a Cowboys team that is 316th in the country in 3-point percentage.

McNeese also allows a ton of 3-point shots (350th in opponent 3-point rate), which should play right into the Vaqueros game plan. While the Cowboys have been the better team this season, they haven't exactly dominated UT Rio Grande Valley in two meetings, posting a plus-four point differential.

So far this season, McNeese is just 12-13-1 against the spread when favored while the Vaqueros have covered in six of nine games as underdogs.

Since neither meeting between these teams in the regular season was decided by more than seven points, I think UT Rio Grande Valley is the side to bet in this semifinal showdown.

Pick: UT Rio Grande Valley +7.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Claim the latest DraftKings promo code offer today. Sign up and win your first $5 bet to get $200 in bonus bets instantly.