Utah State vs. Arizona Prediction, Odds, Best Prop Bet for NCAA Tournament 2nd Round

The No. 1 Arizona Wildcats dominated Long Island in their NCAA Tournament opener, and they’re now favored by double digits in the Round of 32 against the Utah State Aggies.

Utah State is a No. 9 seed, but it was favored in the first round against Villanova, surviving a poor shooting game to advance to the Round of 32. The Mountain West Conference has struggled in the NCAA Tournament in recent years, but Utah State has a chance to pull off a massive upset on Sunday night.

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Arizona is arguably the best team in the country, ranking No. 1 in KenPom with the No. 5 adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency. The team also has multiple NBA prospects – such as Brayden Burries and Koa Peat – that lead one of the deeper teams in the country.

The Wildcats have five players averaging double figures in the 2025-26 season and seven averaging at least 8.9 points per game.

Can Arizona cover against the Mountain West champs to advance to the Sweet 16?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player prop to consider and my prediction for this second-round battle.

Utah State vs. Arizona Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Utah State +11.5 (-105)
Arizona -11.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Utah State: +550
Arizona: -800

Total

154.5 (Over -115/Under -105)

Utah State vs. Arizona How to Watch

Date: Sunday, March 22
Time: 7:50 p.m. EST
Venue: Viejas Arena
How to Watch (TV): truTV
Utah State record: 29-6
Arizona record: 33-2

Utah State vs. Arizona Best Prop Bet

Brayden Burries 15+ Points (-158)

Freshman guard Brayden Burries has been one of the best players in the country this season, and he’s likely going to be a lottery pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Burries is averaging 16.0 points, 4.7 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game while shooting 49.5 percent from the field and 38.1 percent from beyond the arc.

In the first round against LIU, Burries finished with 18 points on 6-of-10 shooting (4-of-5 from 3), and he’s scored 20 or more points in five of his last eight games.

This is a pretty solid matchup for the young guard, as Utah State is just 89th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage and outside the top-200 in opponent 3-point percentage. Villanova made 14 3-pointers in the loss to Utah State on Friday.

Utah State vs. Arizona Prediction and Pick

The Wildcats are the No. 1 defense in the country and rank second in the land in opponent effective field goal percentage.

Even though Utah State survived a bad shooting game from 3 against Villanova, I think it’s going to have a tough time against an Arizona defense that ranks No. 2 in opponent 3-point percentage and 44th in opponent 3-point percentage.

The Wildcats are a good 3-point shooting team (45.3 percent from 3) while the Aggies rank outside the top 140 in 3-point percentage. Utah State does thrive by forcing turnovers, but the Arizona offense has two of the best guards in the country in Burries and Jaden Bradley. They combine to average just 3.0 turnovers per game.

Arizona is 20-14-1 against the spread this season while the Aggies are actually two games under .500 against the number.

Arizona is the better team in this matchup, and it covered with a 34-point win against LIU in the first round. The Wildcats should advance to the Sweet 16 on Sunday.

Pick: Arizona -11.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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