Vegas Views: Bettors on Chiefs to Cover Against the Spread vs. Chargers

Many have debated whether the Kansas City Chiefs are Super Bowl contenders or a fatigued team headed for a quick postseason exit.

If you abide by the old sports betting saying, “Good teams win, great teams cover,” then you have your answer because the Chiefs are 4–7-1 against the spread this season, depending on where you get your betting odds.

The Chiefs haven’t covered in their past six games, leading many to believe they’ll fall short of their quest to become the first team in NFL history to win three consecutive Super Bowls.

But the Chiefs still receive plenty of public support at the betting windows and mobile apps. Strangely, that hasn’t been beneficial for the sportsbooks because bettors wisely aren’t picking the 11-1 Chiefs against the spread.

“Yeah, the Chiefs don’t cover, but you know what, they do win games,” says Vinny Magliulo, the sports director for Gaughan Gaming, a Las Vegas-based casino management company. “They’ve won 11 of 12 and they’re in every moneyline parlay, too. The public doesn’t care that they don’t cover the spread. The public just cares if they win the games and they can cash their moneyline tickets on them.”

But bettors might be enticed to take the Chiefs against the spread this week because they won’t be heavy favorites for the first time in two months. Kansas City is currently a -3.5 home favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook against the Los Angeles Chargers for the AFC West clash on Sunday Night Football. The last time the back-to-back Super Bowl champions weren’t laying more than five points as favorites occurred in Week 3 when the Chiefs covered the -3 vs. the Atlanta Falcons.

Technically, the Chiefs are 2–0 in games they’re favored in by four points or less—they covered the -3 against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 1. Kansas City was favored by 5.5 points or more against the Cincinnati Bengals, Chargers (first meeting), New Orleans Saints, Las Vegas Raiders (twice), Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers. Kansas City was the underdog against the San Francisco 49ers and Buffalo Bills.

Chiefs supporters might have gotten a push if they laid the points in the Week 4 meeting vs. the Chargers, who were seven-point home underdogs at most sportsbooks. For the second meeting, Magliulo said there was plenty of money placed on the Chiefs against the spread when he had the opening week odds at -3.5, prompting a quick change of -4 by Monday morning.

“Professionals will bet against the Chiefs,” Magliulo says about the odds changing to -4. “We’ll see some support for the Chargers.”

The Chargers are a popular underdog this week, but Justin Herbert lacks weapons and could be without two of his best players, with running back J.K. Dobbins on injured reserve and rookie wide receiver Ladd McConkey dealing with multiple injuries. Perhaps it’s best to continue taking the Chiefs for moneyline parlays and avoid the spread for this one because the Chargers do have a strong defense to possibly keep this game close.

Sharp bettors have been eyeing the odds for the New York Giants home game against the New Orleans Saints. Magliulo said there was public support for the Saints when he listed the odds at -4 and -4.5, but that changed after the Giants got spotted five points for the NFL Week 14 matchup.

“Professional bettors, they don’t bet teams, they bet numbers,” Magliulo says. “At 4.5, it’s probably a take [with the Giants].”

This week’s opening odds for the San Francisco 49ers (-4) hosting the Chicago Bears hadn’t changed as of Wednesday afternoon for Magliulo. That could be because bettors are looking to bet on the desperate and talented 49ers, but are struggling with laying the four points against a Bears team that could benefit from a new head coach and extra days of rest. Chicago fired coach Matt Eberflus in the aftermath of the clock management meltdown during the Thanksgiving loss vs. the Detroit Lions. This should probably be 49ers or pass, and don’t hold your breath on this line dropping to three points.

If you can’t bring yourself to back the Chargers, Giants or Bears, then perhaps the Green Bay Packers could be the ideal underdog in Week 14. Magliulo said he had many Packers backers at +3.5 for Thursday night’s NFC North showdown against the Lions. But Magliulo mentioned he wouldn't be surprised if the line dropped to three points, which would entice more support for Detroit.

Manzano’s NFL Week 14 Betting Tips

*Betting lines from DraftKings Sportsbook

Stick to the trend: Bills (-3.5) at Rams

Lay the points with the Bills because the Rams have shown us who they truly are in the past month. Don’t expect the Rams team that beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 8 and took the Lions to overtime in Week 1.

These Rams got crushed by the Philadelphia Eagles at home in Week 12 and were lucky to beat the New England Patriots and New Orleans Saints the past three weeks. The Rams are a mediocre team and the Bills are much better than that. Keep riding with Josh Allen and the red-hot Bills.

Enticing Bet: Raiders (+6.5) at Buccaneers

The Las Vegas Brock Bowers came through for me last week covering against the Chiefs. But maybe the Raiders are more than just Bowers after second-year quarterback Aidan O’Connell impressed in Kansas City. And Maxx Crosby was virtually unstoppable last week, giving me another reason to support the Silver and Black in Tampa Bay this week.

Moneyline Dog: Giants (+200) vs. Saints

As Magliulo mentioned, the sharps will likely take the Giants at +4.5 points or more, but I’ll take it a step further. The Saints just lost Taysom Hill for the season due to injury and now have to get on a plane after only scoring 14 points at home against a Rams’ defense that struggles at linebacker and in the secondary.

“It’s probably a bet against the Giants [mindset], but let’s remember this, too,” Magliulo said about Saints supporters this week. “The Saints, they lost a key component yesterday in Taysom Hill, who’s very integral to their offense. He’s a specialty player, who gives them a lot of versatility.”

Not So Risky: Bengals (-5.5) at Cowboys

This is probably the week Joe Burrow won’t have to worry about his defense blowing another game if he again generates 30-plus points for the offense. Cooper Rush doesn’t stand a chance in a shootout against Burrow even with CeeDee Lamb as his top weapon. Expect Dallas’s two-game winning streak to end and it might get ugly on Monday night.

Stay Away: Cardinals (-2.5) vs. Seahawks

I want no part of these two evenly-matched teams. I don’t know what to expect because both offenses have been inconsistent and both defenses have played well lately. Maybe we get another low-scoring game after the Seattle Seahawks beat the Arizona Cardinals, 16–6, in Week 12. Taking the under with a total line of 44.5 might be the only play for this NFC West battle.

Parlay: Chiefs (-218) vs. Chargers; Jets (+6) at Dolphins; Raiders (+6.5) at Buccaneers

I’m following the trend here and taking the Chiefs on the moneyline against the Chargers. Again, the Chargers are very thin offensively and have to play in a hostile environment at Arrowhead Stadium. But I can’t bring myself to bet on the Chiefs against the spread. They love to play dangerously. Banking on the New York Jets to put up another fight after losing to the Seahawks by five points last week. And rolling with Bowers and the Raiders for a second consecutive week.

Survivor Pool: Vikings (-245) vs. Falcons

Kirk Cousins threw four interceptions during last week’s loss against the Chargers. The Vikings might have better pass rushers than L.A., and they love to blitz opposing quarterbacks. Cousins could have another multi-interception game during his return to Minnesota.

Best Over/Under Total: Bills-Rams (under 49.5, -108)

This might be my biggest risk of the week because the Bills have scored 30 points or more in six consecutive games. But I don’t see the Rams cracking 20 points against a strong Buffalo defense. I’m thinking of a 28–17 game with the Bills killing plenty of clock with running back James Cook.