Venezuela vs. Italy Prediction, Odds, Probable Pitchers for World Baseball Classic Semifinals

Not many people would’ve predicted a Venezuela vs. Italy matchup in the World Baseball Classic Semifinals even a few days ago. But Italy took down Puerto Rico 8-6, and Venezuela upset Japan 8-5 to set up a surprising semifinal showdown.

Italy remains undefeated in the World Baseball Classic with a run differential of 40-17 through five games. Meanwhile, Venezuela only lost to the Dominican Republic in its final pool play game.

Maikel Garcia and Luis Arraez lead the way for Venezuela with eight and seven hits, respectively, while Ronald Acuna Jr. and Arraez both have two home runs for their squad.

For Italy, Vinne Pasquantino broke out with a home run hat trick to win Pool B, with Dante Nori going deep twice in the tournament as well. Nori also leads Italy with 7 hits in 16 at-bats.

Who will advance to the World Baseball Classic championship game against USA?

Here are the odds, probable pitchers, and predictions for Venezuela vs. Italy on Monday night.

Venezuela vs. Italy Odds & Run Line

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Moneyline

Venezuela -190
Italy +155

Run Line

Venezuela -1.5 (-130)
Italy +1.5 (+105

Total

10 (Over -115/Under -105)

Venezuela vs. Italy Probable Pitchers

Venezuela: Keider Montero (3 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K)
Italy: Michael Lorenzen (4.2 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K)

Venezuela vs. Italy How to Watch

Date: Monday, March 16
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
Venue: loanDepot park – Miami, FL
How to Watch (TV): FS1

Venezuela vs. Italy Prediction and Pick

Italy has surprisingly been one of the best offensive teams in this year’s World Baseball Classic.

Italy's .982 OPS is second to only the Dominican Republic, who was eliminated in the semifinals last night. The Italians have slugged a dozen home runs in five games, scoring 40 runs in the tournament. They’ve been fairly consistent as well, scoring at least seven runs in each of their five games, including eight or more in four of them.

Venezuela scored eight runs in a thrilling win over Japan on Saturday, and has now put up at least five runs in four of its five games.

This is also an interesting pitching matchup. Montero threw three shutout innings in his first start, but that was against Nicaragua, who only scored six runs in its four games. Meanwhile, Lorenzen threw nearly five shutout innings against a strong USA lineup.

I can only look to Italy or the OVER in this one. While last night’s semifinal between USA and the Dominican Republic was a low-scoring affair, I don’t think that will be the case tonight.

Italy team total OVER 3.5 runs (-145) could also be worth a look. In that same vein, I may also sprinkle Italy race to 3 (+155), 4 (+175), 5 (+220), and so on.

I think Italy could pull off the upset at +155, but I’ll happily take plus odds for some +1.5 insurance.

Pick: Italy +1.5 (+105)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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