Vermont vs. UMBC Prediction, Odds for America East Playoffs Final

The two top teams in the America East Conference have made it to the final, but only one will advance to the NCAA Tournament.

The UMBC Retrievers have some crazy history in the NCAA Tournament (most famously winning as a No. 16 seed against Virginia back in 2018), and they find themselves as favorites against the Vermont Catamounts on Saturday morning.

That’s right, this is an early tip, as these teams take the court at 11 a.m. EST at Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena.

During the regular season, Vermont won the first meeting between these teams by nine points at home, but the Retrievers got revenge, winning by 13 in their last meeting.

Vermont was 12-4 in conference play during the regular season, and it beat NJIT by nine points in the semifinal to give it a chance to make the Big Dance.

Meanwhile, the Retrievers blew out UMass Lowell – 91-69 – in their semifinal matchup.

Who has the edge in this conference tournament final with a ticket to the NCAA Tournament up for grabs?

Let’s dive into the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for Saturday’s showdown.

Vermont vs. UMBC Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Vermont +2.5 (-110)
UMBC -2.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Vermont: +120
UMBC: -142

Total

137.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Vermont vs. UMBC How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 13
Time: 11:00 a.m. EST
Venue: Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
Vermont record: 22-11
UMBC record: 23-8

Vermont vs. UMBC Key Player to Watch

Gus Yalden, Forward, Vermont

Sophomore big man Gus Yalden is the leading scorer and rebounder for the Catamounts this season, averaging 16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game while shooting 51.1 percent from the field and 36.0 percent from 3.

Yalden was held in check against NJIT, finishing with just six points, and he’ll need to be better if the Catamounts want to upset UMBC. In two meetings against the Retrievers this season, Yalden struggled with his efficiency, shooting 29.0 percent from the field and 25.0 percent from 3.

The UMBC defense limited him to just 12.5 points per game, well below his season average. Can Yalden turn things around in this third and final meeting between these American East rivals?

Vermont vs. UMBC Prediction and Pick

KenPom views UMBC as the superior team in this matchup, as the Retrievers are No. 194 in his latest rankings while the Catamounts clock in at No. 234.

Vermont was able to beat UMBC at home, but oddsmakers are projecting a close game on a neutral court on Saturday morning.

The Catamounts rank outside the top-200 in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency, and they haven’t exactly slowed opponents down when it comes to their shooting, ranking 125th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage and 254th in opponent 3-point percentage.

That’s going to be an issue against the Retrievers, who are 66th in the country in 3-point percentage and 71st in eFG%.

Both of these teams rank inside the top 40 in the country in turnover rate, so I’m going to trust the superior offense in this game. UMBC lost just two games against America East opponents this season, and it enters this game on an 11-game winning streak.

I’ll bet them to extend it to 12 on Saturday.

Pick: UMBC Moneyline (-142 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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