Villanova vs. Xavier Prediction, Odds for College Basketball on Tuesday, Feb. 17

The Villanova Wildcats have built a strong resume in Kevin Willard’s first season as the program’s head coach, sitting at 20-5 heading into Tuesday’s Big East matchup with the Xavier Musketeers.

Basically all five of Villanova’s have come against quality teams, as they’ve dropped games against No. 23 BYU (was No. 8 at the time), No. 1 Michigan (was No. 2 at the time), No. 17 St. John’s, No. 5 UConn and Creighton. The loss to Creighton is the only one that the Wildcats likely wish they had back, but losing to a top-four team in the Big East isn’t a “bad” loss.

Now, the Wildcats find themselves as road favorites on Tuesday night against the Musketeers, who are just 5-9 in Big East play. Xavier has been awful on the road this season (1-7), but it’ll be a much tougher team to face at home. Richard Pitino’s squad is 11-4 at home with its only home losses in Big East play coming against UConn, St. John’s and Creighton.

This is the first of two meetings between these teams, as they’ll also face off on March 7 at Villanova. The Wildcats received 29 votes in the AP Poll, a sign that they’re in a great spot to make the NCAA Tournament this season.

Can they build on their resume with a road win on Tuesday night?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Big East clash on Feb. 17.

Villanova vs. Xavier Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Villanova -4.5 (-115)
Xavier +4.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Villanova: -218
Xavier: +180

Total

152.5 (Over -108/Under -112)

Villanova vs. Xavier How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, Feb. 17
Time: 6:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Cintas Center
How to Watch (TV): FS1
Villanova record: 20-5
Xavier record: 13-12

Villanova vs. Xavier Key Player to Watch

Tre Carroll, Forward, Xavier

One of the top scorers in the conference, Tre Carroll is averaging 18.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.3 blocks per game for the Musketeers while shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3.

He’s shot the 3-ball better at home (35.2 percent) this season, and Carroll has scored over 20 points in three of his last five games., including a 21-point, eight-rebound showing in an overtime loss to St. John’s.

The Wildcats are No. 32 in the country in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, and they’ll need to slow down Carroll if they want to earn a road win on Tuesday. The Wildcats are 7-2 on the road so far this season.

Villanova vs. Xavier Prediction and Pick

While I believe that Villanova is the better team in this matchup, I don’t love the idea of laying this many points on the road against a Musketeers squad that has done a solid job defending home court in the 2025-26 season.

Instead, I’m looking to the total in this game with two efficient offenses set to face off.

Villanova ranks 31st in the country in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency while Xavier is 90th. The Wildcats are also 60th in the country in effective field goal percentage. While Xavier isn’t as efficient as Villanova, it does not turn the ball over, ranking 22nd in the country in turnover percentage.

So, the Musketeers are going to get plenty of shots up, even against a strong Villanova defense.

The pace is the interesting thing to watch in this game, as these teams are polar opposites in that regard. Villanova ranks just 329th in the country in adjusted tempo (per KenPom) while Xavier clocks in at No. 39. So, if the Musketeers can play at their pace at home, we could see a track meet on Tuesday night.

Lastly, Xavier is one of the best OVER teams in the country (18-7) this season while Villanova’s offense has helped it hit the OVER in 15 of 25 games. I wish this total was south of 150, but I still think the OVER is the right side on Tuesday night.

Pick: OVER 152.5 (-108 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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