Warriors vs. Heat Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Tuesday, March 25

Jimmy Butler returns to Miami for the first time since being traded at the deadline, and the Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors are in very different positions.

Golden State is 16-3 in the 19 games that Butler has played in with the franchise, while the Heat just ended a 10-game losing streak on Sunday against the Charlotte Hornets. Miami is bound for the play-in tournament while the Warriors have a real shot at the No. 6 seed or better in the West.

However, Steph Curry has been banged up for Golden State and is listed as questionable for this game. If he can’t go, the Warriors are going to face a much tougher battle to knock off the Heat, who should be motivated to beat Butler after the rough ending between him and the franchise.

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, players to bet on in the prop market, and my prediction for Tuesday’s contest.

Warriors vs. Heat Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

Warriors -5 (-110)
Heat +5 (-110)

Moneyline

Warriors: -205
Heat: +170

Total

217.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Warriors vs. Heat How to Watch

Date: Tuesday, March 25
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Kaseya Center
How to Watch (TV): TNT
Warriors record: 41-30
Heat record: 30-41

Warriors vs. Heat Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

Steph Curry – questionable
Gary Payton II – available

Heat Injury Report

Bam Adebayo – available
Josh Christopher – out
Keshad Johnson – out
Dru Smith – out
Nikola Jovic – out
Tyler Herro – available
Duncan Robinson – questionable
Isaiah Stevens – out

Warriors vs. Heat Best NBA Prop Bets

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

Brandin Podziemski OVER 11.5 Points (-120)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Brandin Podziemski is a solid target in the prop market:

Curry has missed two of the last three games for Golden State, and Brandin Podziemski has taken on a bigger role in those matchups, scoring 17, 15 and 19 points while playing over 29 minutes in every game.

Podziemski has scored 15 or more points in each of his last five games that he’s completed (he scored 0 in a game in which he was injured in the opening minute), and he’s averaging 14.0 points per game in 12 games since re-entering the starting lineup on Feb. 13.

Podz is a steal at this number if Steph sits, and even if the Warriors superstar plays, I like the usage that Podziemski has received as of late, taking 12.3 shots and 5.8 3-point attempts per night over his last 12 games.

Warriors vs. Heat Prediction and Pick

Another play from my NBA Best Bets column, I’m fading the Heat in this matchup even with Curry’s status up in the air:

Sticking with the Warriors-Heat matchup, I’m fading Miami in this game, but maybe not in the way you’d expect.

Since Curry’s status is up in the air, I’m taking the team total under for the Heat rather than baking the Warriors to cover.

Golden State is sixth in defensive rating over its last 10 games, and it should slow down a Miami team that is 29th in offensive rating over its last 10. On top of that, the Heat have scored 106 or fewer points in seven of their last 10 games.

During that stretch, Miami has failed to crack 100 points a whopping four times. This offense doesn’t have a high ceiling, and Golden State will likely aim to play a defensive-minded game if Curry does sit.

Either way, Golden State is eighth in the NBA in scoring defense this season and fourth over its last 15 games, allowing just over 108 points per game during that stretch.

Pick: Heat Team Total UNDER 106.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

Are you new to DraftKings? Sign up today and place a $5 bet to earn a guaranteed $150 in bonus bets. Win or lose, DraftKings will issue six $25 bonus bets instantly.