Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction, Odds and Best NBA Prop Bets for Wednesday, Feb. 12

The Warriors are road favorites in Dallas.

The Warriors are road favorites in Dallas. / Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

A huge game for playoff implications in the Western Conference takes place on Wednesday night, as the Dallas Mavericks host Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler, and the Golden State Warriors.

Golden State is 2-0 in the Butler era, jumping into the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference while the Mavericks have not been nearly as successful since their infamous Luka Doncic-Anthony Davis swap.

Davis was injured in his first game with Dallas and is expected to miss about a month, and the Mavs have also lost their other top center options (Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, and Dwight Powell) to various injuries.

So, Dallas now has to play small out of necessity going forward, including tonight’s game against Golden State. 

Oddsmakers have set the Warriors as road favorites, but can they keep things rolling now that Butler is in the fold?

Here’s a breakdown of the odds, players to back in the prop market, and my prediction for Wednesday night. 

Warriors vs. Mavericks Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Spread

• Warriors -6.5 (-115)
• Mavericks +6.5 (-105

Moneyline

• Warriors: -270
• Mavericks: +220

Total

• 233 (Over -108/Under -112)

Warriors vs. Mavericks How to Watch

• Date: Wednesday, Feb. 12
• Time: 9:30 p.m. EST
• Venue: American Airlines Center
• How to Watch (TV): ESPN
• Warriors record: 27-26
• Mavericks record: 28-26

Warriors vs. Mavericks Injury Reports

Warriors Injury Report

• Jonathan Kuminga – out
• Kevon Looney – available

Mavs Injury Report

• Anthony Davis – out
• Dante Exum – questionable
• Daniel Gafford – out
• Dwight Powell – out
• Dereck Lively II – out
• Caleb Martin – out
• P.J. Washington – questionable

Warriors vs. Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bets

Golden State Warriors Best NBA Prop Bet

• Jimmy Butler OVER 18.5 Points (-125)

Earlier today, I shared in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – why Jimmy Butler is a great target in the prop market: 

Jimmy Butler has been terrific since making his Golden State Warriors debut, scoring 25 and 20 points while attempting 12 shots in each game.

The bigger key to Butler’s success? He’s getting to the line a ton – something we grew accustomed to when he was dominating in Miami. Butler has 28 free throw attempts in his first two games in Golden State, making him a great bet to clear this prop when it’s set at less than 20.5 points.

The Dallas Mavericks are ravaged by injuries right now, missing Dwight Powell, Daniel Gafford, Dereck Lively II and Anthony Davis in their frontcourt.  

Butler should have no problem getting to the rim on Wednesday night, and I think he’s in line for yet another 20-point game. 

Dallas Mavericks Best NBA Prop Bet

• PJ Washington OVER 9.5 Rebounds (+105)

Washington is questionable tonight, but I’m taking a chance on him in this prop if he can play since he’ll likely be the small-ball center for Dallas.

Washington is averaging 8.2 rebounds per game, and he’s picked up at least 10 boards in six of his last 15 games, averaging 9.9 rebounds per contest. 

The Warriors are also just 21st in the NBA in rebounding percentage, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Washington have a big game on the glass tonight. 

Warriors vs. Mavericks Prediction and Pick

This may seem obvious, but I think Golden State is about to go on a second-half run now that Butler is in the fold.

The Warriors lacked shot creation and scoring after Curry in their rotation, but Butler has immediately provided that, allowing the Warriors to survive the non-Steph minutes.

On top of that, Curry has been red hot as of late, scoring 32 or more points in four consecutive games.

Dallas, on the other hand, has very little depth in the frontcourt and is relying heavily on Kyrie Irving to carry the offense night in and night out. The Mavs have dropped five of their last 10 games and are just 19th in the NBA in net rating over that stretch.

Golden State is 11th in the NBA in net rating over its last 10, and the Warriors have improved to 5-5-1 against the spread as a road favorite in the process.

I’ll gladly lay the points with Golden State against a depleted Dallas squad. 

Pick: Warriors -6.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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Find Peter Dewey's NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on  BetStamp here.

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