Wisconsin vs. Michigan Prediction, Odds for Big Ten Tournament Semifinal

The Michigan Wolverines stayed alive in the Big Ten Tournament on Friday, knocking off the Ohio State Buckeyes behind strong games from Aday Mara and Elliott Cadeau.

The Wolverines failed to cover in the game – winning by just four – but that hasn’t changed oddsmakers’ thoughts on them heading into the Big Ten semis against the Wisconsin Badgers. Michigan is favored by 12.5 points against a Badgers team that is down starting forward Nolan Winter – the team’s leading rebounder.

Wisconsin has two wins by three points in the Big Ten Tournament, beating Washington in the second round before taking down Illinois in overtime in the quarterfinals. The Badgers are one of two teams to beat the Wolverines this season, winning their lone matchup by a score of 91-88.

Does Michigan get revenge on Saturday to set up a date in the Big Ten Championship game on Sunday?

Let’s take a look at the latest odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Big Ten battle.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Wisconsin +12.5 (-115)
Michigan -12.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Wisconsin: +575
Michigan: -850

Total

161.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Wisconsin vs. Michigan How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 14
Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
Venue: United Center
How to Watch (TV): CBS
Wisconsin record: 24-9
Michigan record: 30-2

Wisconsin vs. Michigan Key Player to Watch

Nick Boyd, Guard, Wisconsin

Senior guard Nick Boyd stole the show on Friday against Illinois, scoring 38 points to knock off Illinois. The Badgers have a ton of high-profile wins this season, and Boyd has been at the center of many of them, leading the team in scoring this season.

He’s averaging 20.2 points, 3.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game while shooting 48.2 percent from the field and 37.3 percent from beyond the arc.

In the first meeting with Michigan, Boyd had 22 points (on 8-of-16 shooting), six dimes and three rebounds. If he plays as well as he did in the quarterfinals, the Badgers may have another upset up their sleeve.

Wisconsin vs. Michigan Prediction and Pick

This is a little bit of an uphill battle for the Badgers without Winter, but I’m not buying Michigan as a 12.5-point favorite against one of the few teams that has competed with it this season.

Yes, the Wolverines are the No. 3 defense (according to KenPom) in the country, but they allowed 91 points to this Wisconsin offense earlier this season, and the Badgers remain elite on that end of the floor.

Wisconsin is 52nd in the country in effective field goal percentage, 61st in 3-point percentage and sixth in 3-point rate. The Badgers average over 83 points per game, and they’re now 6-3 against the spread when set as underdogs.

Meanwhile, Michigan has just three wins in its last 10 games that have come by 13 or more points. The Wolverines scored just 71 points in their win over Ohio State on Friday, and they don’t shoot nearly as many 3s as the Badgers (135th in 3-point rate.

Now, I don’t want to discount the Michigan defense, which is No. 1 in the country in opponent eFG%, but it’s hard to look past the Badgers’ success against Michigan earlier this season, especially when oddsmakers are projecting a blowout in this game.

I think the Badgers are getting a few too many points on March 14.

Pick: Wisconsin +12.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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